Zandar's 2012 Predictions

Well, let's see what's ahead for 2012:

1. President Obama wins re-election.  I just think whomever the GOP candidate is, they'll be driven so far to the right they'll get stomped in the general.  And a grand total of none of these clowns can handle Obama in debates.
2. But...the GOP retains one, if not both chambers in Congress.  The most likely scenario is that the Dems lose control of Congress and enough GOP redistricting nonsense locks down their control of the House for two years.  If that happens, the GOP may very well eliminate the filibuster in order to force shutdown/hostage scenarios approximately every 37 seconds, and their demands will not be small in 2013.  I'd love to be wrong about this.
3. The Eurozone finally blows up.  Austerity economics in Europe are finally going to cath up with them in 2012.  European countries will be in recession, and if things get bad enough, it's Global Financial Crisis time again.  It could weigh very heavily on the economy.
4. At least one GOP candidate, somewhere in America, will refer to President Obama with the N-word.  It will happen.  It just has to.  Most likely it will be some state-level douchebag, but I wouldn't be surprised if it slips out at a Congressional or even GOP Oval Office candidate level staffer.  But this, I feel confident of.
5. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will be driven from power.  There's just too much bloodshed and anger at this point.  I'm not sure how long the road will be, and over how many Syrian corpses it will travel, but it will happen.  He has lost the right to rule.
6. There will be a military incident on the Iran-Iraq border.  No brainer, especially with US fighting troops gone.  And the Saudis and Israelis will have kittens when it happens.
7. The GOP will shut down the Federal government.  It may be just a partial one, but it'll happen, especially if there's good economic news and/or POTUS starts pulling ahead in the polls.  They will literally go for broke.
8. 2012 will be a record box-office year.  Just too many good films out for 2012, and a lot of people will be looking for an escape.
9. The push for Sarah Palin as the GOP VP candidate will be massive, but she won't be the choice.  I still think it'll be Chris "Bag O Donuts" Christie, but if the GOP were smart, it would be Huntsman on the ticket for anyone but Romney, and Romney will take Christie.
10. We'll still here end of next year.  Bon and I have been busy as hell this year, and we're both writing for other blogs (and Bon has an awesome side project in Dead Shuffle).  But ZVTS is our baby, and we're going to raise the little tyke right through year four.

We'll see how I manage.  Into the Future files you go.

Parent Of The Year: Epic Fail

Two northern Arizona parents were arrested after photos of their young children allegedly being abused were posted on Facebook.

An anonymous Facebook user reportedly alerted authorities on Wednesday after seeing two children, an infant and a toddler, bound with duct tape around their wrists and ankles in photos posted to the social networking site, Fox affiliate KSAZ-TV reported.

The children's mouths were taped shut, and one of them was hung upside down by some exercise equipment, according to the Coconino County Sheriff's Office in Flagstaff.


"They did indicate that they were simply joking, however, it is apparent through the photographs that this was not a joke. The photos depicted the children's faces in sheer terror," Gilliland said. "Clearly, you can't tape another person's hands and mouth shut -- especially small children. It is clearly child abuse, and they were charged appropriately."

The children, a 2-year-old and a 10-month-old infant, are being taken care of by family members while the investigation continues, according to the station.

You have people so stupid they would do this to kids.  Then they are so stupid they post it on Facebook.  Then they are so stupid they say it was a joke.  The obvious concluison is that these people are too stupid to have kids forced to depend on them for food and shelter.

I had a relative who was nearly this stupid.  He also duct taped my mouth, hands and feet and tickled me until I passed out.  Not from mirth but from lack of freaking oxygen.  I'm grateful for law enforcement, because this brought out a violent "beat some sense into them" reaction from me.  I would beat these people nearly to death, then let them have a break and go at it again.

The Bon is pissed.  Let's hope local law enforcement feels the same way.

My Favorite Time Of Year

So it's time to say goodbye to 2011. It was a good year, for the most part. It was one of the few times I not only met but exceeded my resolutions. That makes me want to up the ante a little, and list my resolutions here where I can compare them a year from now, the eve of 2013. You know, provided the world doesn't end or anything silly like that.

1. I will lose 30 pounds. Oh sure, we always have the weight goal to get out of the way. I'm keeping this modest, because a medicine change will make it likely that I will gain weight. This year I crossed the 100 lb mark, so to keep that off and make any movement towards a loss is a big deal.

2. I will submit no fewer than two query letters or article pitches each week. This is my attempt to increase my productivity in a measurable way. I usually go on benders of progress followed by valleys of Facebook laziness. I have made progress with baby steps, now it's time to be consistent. I will allow two weeks off to be cashed in as needed.

3. I will be published in four different publications. To make this possible, I will actually clarify this to mean accepted rather than published, because some mags publish six months after initial acceptance.

4. I will do one significant or three minor good deeds per month, done in total secret. The good deeds must be something that will actively make someone happier or better off, and I cannot claim any benefit from it but the good deed itself. I accomplished that last year, so to ramp up the difficulty, money cannot be involved directly and no more than ten dollars indirectly. I will have to be creative.

5. I will get through all the scales and test out on them. Meaning, my teacher can say any scale and I will be able to play it in tune, immediately, and instantly know what sharps and flats are part of that key signature. It will not only be a good practice technique, but it will help me master third and fifth position as well and free me up to work on my bowing. I am making a conscious effort to build my musical foundation in solid theory.

6. This year I want to dig into regional history. I will visit six museums or sites that tie into that theme. Fantastic Caverns and the Heavener Rune are among my intended destinations.

As a child I wasn't that into New Year's Day. It was an excuse to order pizza and stay up late. As an adult, I became less enchanted with religious and traditional holidays, and found the new year to be a really exciting thing. It's a chance to set new goals. It's a chance to drop any remaining baggage from the year before and make a clean break. I like the double-sided fun of celebrating the year I am putting to rest while looking forward to the one coming up.

Here's hoping you are all with us a year from now when we compare notes and look back on 2012.

Zandar's 2011 Scorecard

Welp, this is the day of the year I open up my Future Stupidity files and get depressed over how terrible I am at predicting said future.

This year I wasn't even close on my ten.  The GOP didn't shut down the government and allowed DADT to be repealed without a huge fight, unemployment got better, not worse, POTUS technically didn't veto anything, Julian Assange didn't get disappeared, and the Dow ended the year not only above 10k, but 12k.

I was only right on 3 of 10:  California did ask for federal money for a number of programs to close its budget hole, despite the Kindle Fire, the iPad 2 continues to dominate (for now) and I did manage to call the GOP embracing birtherism in 2011...in fact every single candidate did with the exceptions of Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman.

My SCOTUS predictions were a wash as those cases, California's Prop 8 and the PPACA's individual mandate will be taken up in 2012.

At best, I'm 3 for 9.  Still pretty bad.  We'll see how I do with my predictions later today for 2012.

StupidiNews, New Year's Weekend Edition!

• The US and the United Arab Emirates have reached a deal worth $3.5 billion for a missile defense system.
• British law enforcement officials are dealing with a "epidemic" of metal thefts in the UK.
• American energy companies shipped a record amount of gasoline and other refined fuels overseas, helping to keep domestic gas prices at a new yearly average record.
• Verizon has already backtracked on its $2 "convenience fee" for customers choosing to pay online or by phone after a massive internet upwelling.
• A federal court is looking into claims that the federal government worked with the country's largest telecom firm to wiretap millions of Americans.

Last Call

This week's "Obama is DOOOOOOOOOOMED" article comes from CNN, where commentator Brad Chase accuses the President of ignoring the youth vote...and in turn, America's twenty-somethings will completely abandon the Democrats and stay home in 2012 unless the President tackles the student debt crisis.

The sobering reality:  just 55.3 percent of Americans between 16 and 29 have jobs.  And earlier this year, Americans’ student loan debt surpassed credit card debt for the first time ever.

Rather than develop a lasting initiative to help young unemployed Americans, the President launched “Greater Together” – a campaign tool that offers community forums rather than jobs.  Rather than provide a bailout to those crushed by the burden of educational loans, his student debt relief program was pathetic – only reducing interest rates by a measly 0.5 percent.

No wonder less than half of Americans 18-29 approve of Obama.

In other words, candidates in both parties are so busy buying off the Boomers that the broke-ass Millenials simply fail to count.  Chase goes on to say that student debt relief would go a long way in getting voters under 30 back into the big blue tent, along with jobs jobs jobs.

But here's the thing: the Democrats did just that with student loan relief bills in the House and Senate...which are still sitting in committee and have no chance of passage because Republicans immediately vowed to block the legislation in the Senate and have no intention of bringing the bill out of committee in the House.  And the Republicans happily killed the American Jobs Act.

And for this, Millenials should stay home and not vote, nor should they care about what happens because Washington's just going to screw them over anyway, right?

Let me ask you a question.  How does the youth vote staying home get more and better Democrats in Congress?  Answer:  it doesn't.  And the last time the Republicans had control of Congress and the White House?  They passed a law specifically designed to screw over Millenials on student debt, the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act, which classified student loans specifically as debt that cannot be forgiven by bankruptcy and made it harder to declare bankruptcy anyway.

That's what Republicans did for the Millenials.

Now tell me again why attacking President Obama and staying home on Election Day is such a smart idea as far as getting this law fixed, guys.  I'm all ears.

The Reason Behind Mitt's Latest Dodge

Mitt Romney's run into more than a bit of trouble this week trying to dodge the issue of releasing his tax return, something pretty much every presidential hopeful has done during campaign season since Nixon.  He's even gotten his son Matt in on trying to change the subject to...you guessed it...President Obama's "real" birth certificate.

Josh Marshall makes a pretty damned good educated guess as to why Mittens is jumping through any hoop he can find in order to prevent any squinting at his tax numbers:  It's because Romney would prove the Buffett Rule.

This is Romney’s problem. While we don’t know the specifics of Romney’s tax returns, we know enough about his finances and sources of incomes to know that he is the poster-boy for the Buffett Rule. As Romney likes to say, he’s unemployed. He doesn’t draw a salary. But he seems to still be making big big money off capital gains which are currently taxed at a very low rate. He doesn’t seem to have drawn a salary at any time recently. So he likely pays no payroll taxes. And that’s before you get into legal but aggressive tax-sheltering. It seems virtually impossible that Mitt Romney doesn’t pay the sort of effective tax rate that would make people’s eyes pop when compared to middle income and even relatively wealthy (by normal standards) people who pay considerably higher rates.

That might cause a little problem in any election year. But issues of income inequality and particularly tax policy are right at the top of the political agenda in 2012. And that dictates keeping those tax returns under wraps as long as possible. 

And Mitt's big issue, the plaid shirts, the hokey family stuff, the "unemployed" jibes at campaign stops, all are focused on selling him as an ordinary guy.  His tax return would all but annihilate that illusion, and it would be in a way that Romney couldn't equivocate about:  numbers don't lie (or at least, they sure had better not lie on a tax return for a presidential candidate.)

If America figures out that Mitt paid less of an effective tax rate than Americans who really are middle-class, salt of the earth types, then he's done.  Millionaire Mitt would get squashed in the realm of Occupy Wall Street, Inequalistan and Republicans fighting to empty the pockets of working Americans.  He knows it would be the final flip that he couldn't flop on, and he'd be on the record.

If Mitt was smart, this would have been the perfect Friday to dump this news on, just before a holiday weekend and the Village bound and determined to declare Mitt the winner no matter what happens in Iowa on Tuesday.  As it is, the longer he draws it out, the worse it's going to be when he finally has to do it.

Fire Walker Chronicles, Part 7

Looks like not only will Wisconsin GOP Gov. Scott Walker get his day in court to argue that the state's recall process is unconstitutional, but that Democrats will be locked out of the case, unable to present arguments to defend the recall.

A judge in Wisconsin has ruled that Democratic recall organizers cannot challenge a lawsuit brought by the state GOP against election officials — a suit that claims Gov. Scott Walker’s constitutional rights are being violated by the state’s petition review process.

This means that barring a hypothetical appeal, any continuing litigation in this matter will be conducted exclusively between the state GOP and the election board’s attorney, without the Dems themselves being able to participate and present legal arguments.

“I was a little surprised,” said Jeremy Levinson, the attorney for the recall committee, in an interview with TPM. “It’s the first time I can recall — let me rephrase — it’s the first time I’m aware of a recall-related lawsuit where only the official who is being targeted for recall gets to be a party, and the folks who are working to recall that official are shut out of the process.”

It does seem rather pointedly ridiculous that Walker's argument is that the burden of challenging recall signatures is "unconstitutional" abridgement of his rights, but being able to challenge that very argument in court is apparently completely unnecessary, and that the rights of the people of Wisconsin to exercise their free speech in a state-mandated recall process doesn't actually matter so much compared to being Governor.

No wonder that the GOP filed the lawsuit in their home turf of Waukesha County to get a friendly judge, in this case a former GOP State Senator.  The case will proceed forward next week with that same judge hearing Walker's arguments and the motion to dismiss the case on January 5th.  Meanwhile Walker and his allies are pushing to win the battle of public opinion, having already spent over a million bucks in ads fighting the recall petition in just the last six weeks.

We'll see how that goes.

Breaking Celebrity Gossip: Russell Brand Files For Divorce

Russell Brand is filing for divorce from Katy Perry, TMZ just broke the story.

I'm a Katy Perry fan because I admire her honest and down to earth approach to her lifestyle.  I think she has a long career ahead of her once she breaks free of Teenage Dream and all that comes with it.  Brand... well, he has no talent.  He plays the same schmuck over and over which makes me think he isn't acting at all, and to blindisde your spouse with a divorce announcement through TMZ is just plain chicken.  As of right now, that seems to be the story.

Maybe old Russ will have a new reason to show his skanky smirk in photos.  He was clearly the non-talent of the marriage and I hope Katy leaves him broke and depressed.  Hey, there's always Arthur: On The Rocks to look forward to, right?

Best And Worst Video of 2011

My favorite is short, sweet and hilarious.




... and now we have the worst.

In "Republican Wisdom" this old lady shows us exactly why we must never vote for the GOP.  It's a bit dated, the Herman Cain reference is hilarious.

Legalizing Marijuana: You're Doing It Right (Finally)

According to the Huffington Post, Colorado has become the third state to ask the DEA to reschedule marijuana as a Schedule II drug.  This means it could be prescribed, but would be controlled by the same methods used to regulate morphine and other powerful painkillers.

Regardless of what one might think about recreational marijuana use, the reality is it has some medical applications.  I have known two men from two completely different backgrounds benefit from marijuana during their final weeks battling cancer.  It helped them eat, it raised their spirits a little, and there was no harm done to them whatsoever.  Marijuana does have medical benefits, and a little work could make it to patients could enjoy the benefits without the risk of smoking it.  Right now it is classified as Schedule I, which means it has no medical use, no positive effects.  That is incorrect.

Sixteen states have legalized marijuana and are fighting the sudden decision to enforce laws that have been on the books and ignored.  Rhode Island and Washington have started calling for reclassification.  It would make sense to hear it out and get a new understanding.  In a perfect world, both sides would speak truthfully and let the DEA come to a logical and scientific ruling.  In reality there will be a mess, and any decisions will be appealed and stalled while the losing side refuses to acknowledge their loss.  Giving the dying any relief at all is good enough for me, but any attempt to rob us of the chance to openly debate and explore is unfair and unethical.

Was it right for the states to operate in opposition of federal law?  No.  Calling for an evaluation based on new evidence is fair and ethically sound.  They deserve our support.

Rick Rolling The Country

Rick Santorum has a frothily exciting plan to solve poverty:  get hitched and graduate, poor people!

“Do you know if you do two things in your life — if you do two things in your life, you’re guaranteed never to be in poverty in this country? What two things, that if you do, will guarantee that you will not be in poverty in America?” he asked the crowd.

“Number one, graduate from high school. Number two, get married. Before you have children,” he said. “If you do those two things, you will be successful economically. What does that mean to a society if everybody did that? What that would mean is that poverty would be no more. If you want to have a strong economy, there are two basic things we can do.”

I'm sure that's news to the millions of married working poor in this 2004 study and these latest figures showing that some 8-10% of married couples with kids are in fact below the poverty line.

Sure, you're more likely to be in poverty in a one-income family headed by a single mother.  But the notion that a high-school diploma and marriage prevents poverty completely as Santorum claims is pretty ludicrous.  The real issue with poverty is jobs and education, and Republicans are pretty keen on cutting the social net in order to "force" people to take jobs, like cutting medicine will force people to stop being sick.

And yes, there are people with advanced degrees on food stamps. It happens.  How does Santorum explain that away?  Also, he's completely against same-sex marriage, which would increase the number of married couples in the country.

He's Rick rolling voters.

Mutual Admiration Society

Once again, President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton top Gallup's most admired list in 2011.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama continue to be named by Americans as the Most Admired Woman and Most Admired Man living today in any part of the world. Clinton has been the Most Admired Woman each of the last 10 years, and Obama has been the Most Admired Man four years in a row. Oprah Winfrey, Michelle Obama, Sarah Palin, and Condoleezza Rice round out the top five Most Admired women, while the top five Most Admired men also include George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Billy Graham, and Warren Buffett.

President Obama wins by a pretty big margin there, as does Hillary Clinton. And it's really saying something that Mitt Romney is nowhere near that list, while Newt, The Donald, Moose Lady and the Bachmanniac are.  I'm betting if you take a look back at this list the year before each Presidential election, you'd find some pretty embarrassing people on that list.

It also has to really piss off the wingers that this is year number 20 Hillary Clinton is on the list, now officially passing Nancy Reagan's 19 times in the top 10.  The Reverend Billy Graham has been on this list a staggering 55 times now...but has never finished first.

Number 11 this year for the men?  Tim Tebow.  Mitt is 13 behind The Dalai Lama.  McCain, Jimmy Carter, Al Gore, Jesse Jackson, John Kerry, and Chinese Premier Liu Xiaobo all down the list too.

For the ladies, Angelina Joile is 11, followed by Princess Kate.  Gabby Giffords is 15, and Nancy Pelosi edges out Nancy Reagan at 21 and 22, respectively.  Somehow, J-Lo is 17, but I blame that damn Fiat commercial.

Oh, and this is the first year Michelle Obama has edged out Sarah Palin since the two of them appeared on the list in 2008.  Palin was in the double digits the last three years.  Oops.

StupidiNews!

• North Korea has put the kibosh on thawing relations with the South in the new regime of Kim Jong-un, saying the world should "not expect any change" from Pyongyang.
• Congress has quietly released some $40 million of the $200 million in aid money for the Palestinians frozen in protest due to their failed bid for UN statehood.
• The latest 2012 hiring forecast shows US businesses plan to add jobs, but are unsure as to how many.
• Recently released documents from the UK show that PM Margaret Thatcher strongly considered pulling out of Northern Ireland 30 years ago over international condemnation from hunger strikes.
• More small and medium-sized businesses are turning to tablets in 2012, and the majority are looking to purchase the iPad.

Last Call

Meet the new employee/boss relationship involving Keith Olbermann, same as the old employee/boss relationship involving Keith Olbermann.

Keith Olbermann, who came to Current TV this year to remake the channel and compete against his old home, MSNBC, is sitting out the biggest political nights of the season.

Despite being the biggest star on the fledging channel, Mr. Olbermann is not scheduled to anchor Current’s coverage of the Iowa caucus or the New Hampshire primary in January. Instead, Current’s other prime time anchors, Cenk Uygur and Jennifer Granholm, will be joined by the channel’s chairman, the former vice president Al Gore, according to the channel’s TV schedule.

Mr. Olbermann also was noticeably absent from two special reports that Current produced after Republican debates in mid-December. Those, too, were anchored by Mr. Uygur.

These absences suggest that there may be new tension between Mr. Olbermann and the managers at Current, who are trying to create a progressive-oriented cable news channel. 

I don't get Current TV on my cable provider...and I'm not too particularly broken up over it either.  But if Cenk is Al Gore's new golden boy, I can't wait for the fireworks to begin...especially when Cenk's extracurricular activities at HuffPo involves telling people not to vote for President Obama on Tuesday in Iowa in order to "teach him a lesson".

I follow politics for a living; I'm not unaware of how hideous the Republican choices are. But that doesn't mean that we should pretend that President Obama has been brilliant because we're scared of the big, bad Republicans. That would be fundamentally dishonest.

And to be honest, I'm really disappointed that he does not have a primary opponent. This country is dying for someone who is going to take on the establishment. Who is that going to be on our side -- Barack Obama? On that, I know whether to laugh or cry. Every time I think about the idea that President Obama might be against the establishment, I laugh and laugh and laugh. There is never been a guy who was this enamored with the establishment. If he had wrestling nickname it would be The Establishment.

Hey Current?  Your new host is openly advocating weakening the President, ostensibly because walking out on "establishment" Dems and handing the House to the Tea Party in 2010 worked out so very well for progressive legislation in 2011.  It'll be good for Cenk's ratings so he can continue to rail at the horrible Dems while the GOP wrecks the country, or so he thinks.

Then again, HuffPo has no problem espousing the greatness of Ron Paul and saying Dems need to insist on dumping Biden for Hillary as soon as possible, so nobody should be surprised at Cenk's antics.  Works for HuffPo, doesn't it?

Perhaps Olbermann has noticed the ratings swirling down the drain. Things are certainly...interesting over there.   On the other hand, maybe there's a reason why people are dumping Current with analysis like this:

The agenda of the president sucks and is deeply Republican.

Boy, that sure makes me want to switch over from "fake progressive" MSNBC and watch "true progressive" Current, huh.