Last Call

Over at Maddowblog, Steve Benen locks on to the Old Age Mutant Nimrod Turtle vs. Ashley Judd story.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), generally comfortable in the roll of dealmaker, has done very little work in the fiscal talks. The reason is widely known, but generally goes unsaid: McConnell is terrified of a primary challenger and working with Democrats on a debt-reduction deal will only generate more far-right ire.

But there's also McConnell's general election prospects to consider.

 Two weeks ago, Public Policy Polling found that McConnell, with an approval rating of just 37%, is the least popular senator in the nation. In a hypothetical match-up against actor Ashley Judd, the Republicans' Senate leader was ahead by only four points, 47% to 43%.

And McConnell cried "SKEWED" and released his own poll which found...that he was only ahead by 4 points, 47%-43%.

Mitch is in trouble in 2014 and he knows it.

For that matter, also note that McConnell is testing anti-Judd messages two years before the election -- against someone who's never held or sought elected office -- which suggests the senator is genuinely worried about his prospects. By releasing his internal poll, McConnell hoped to look stronger, but in this case, I'm afraid he doth protest too much.

Yep.  I didn't think Ashley Judd was a serious threat to Mitch until we saw his reaction.  If he's in this much trouble with two years to go against an anti-coal Hollywood type (even if that Hollywood type is a UK grad) he just might be actually vulnerable.

We'll see.  Sen. Ashley Judd?  Yeah, I'm down with that.

Fukushima Jujitsu

The incoming administration of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party is pulling the full flip flop on the country's post-Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster policy of eliminating nuclear reactors, and if anything, new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is eager to greenlight more reactors ASAP to make up for the country's power shortages.

Japan’s new leaders set to work Thursday on dismantling plans to rid the country of nuclear power by 2040, pledging to review a post-Fukushima policy.

The pro-business Liberal Democratic Party-led government also said they would give the green light to any reactors deemed safe by regulators, indicating shuttered power stations could start coming back online.

“We need to reconsider the previous administration’s policy that aimed to make zero nuclear power operation possible during the 2030s,” Toshimitsu Motegi told a news conference.

Shinzo Abe, who was elected as prime minister and unveiled his cabinet line-up on Wednesday, appointed Motegi as his economy, trade and industry minister, also in charge of supervising the nuclear industry.

Abe’s LDP won a landslide victory in the December 16 election, returning to power after a three-year break.

Despite anti-nuclear sentiment running high in Japan following the Fukushima disaster, parties opposing atomic energy made little impact at the ballot box.

Motegi said he was ready to give the go-ahead to resuming generation at nuclear power plants “if they are confirmed safe”.

Given that the LDP was swept back into power, Japan's voters are clearly far more worried about Japan's stagnant economy than nuclear safety.  To their credit, the LDP is already proposing big infrastructure projects to rebuild the damaged northeast coast of Japan and to put people to work immediately (something the US should emulate).  That stimulative rebuilding effort is going to include nuclear plants however.

I wish Japan would consider other power sources, but it's hard for me to complain when the US lacks the will to even try to rebuild anything at this point because the greatest country in the world "can no longer afford expensive boondoggles" like, you know, roads, bridges, schools and power lines.

Aloha And Mahalo

Well, looks like I was wrong about Gov. Neil Abercrombie of Hawaii...he really did go for someone other than Colleen Hanabusa to replace the late Sen. Daniel Inouye, choosing Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz to fill the seat.

Schatz, 40, said he will fly to Washington tonight and be sworn in Thursday so he can participate in Senate votes to avert a fiscal cliff of federal tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to take effect in January.

Schatz said he is "humbled" and "honored" by the opportunity.

He said the first thing he would do is reach out to the rest of the delegation to establish Hawaii's game plan for the coming Congress.

Schatz said he would also reach out to U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and to the White House on the pressing issues now before Congress.

"I am honored to serve in this capacity. ... If given the opportunity, I'll make Hawaii proud,"    Schatz said.

Next in line to be lieutenant governor is Senate President Shan Tsutsui of Maui. Abercrombie said Tsutsui is weighing it and must make a decision "promptly."          

Schatz, a former Makiki state lawmaker and Democratic Party of Hawaii chairman, was elected lieutenant governor in 2010.

Abercrombie chose Schatz from a list of recommendations from the Democratic Party of Hawaii that included U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa and and Esther Kiaaina, the deputy director of the state Department of Land and Natural Resources.

Schatz will also be the youngest Senator in the upper chamber at 40, while I don't see him lasting as long as Inouye (five decades), nothing's impossible.  I can't really fault Abercrombie:  he's replacing the longest serving senator with the youngest one.  Also, having Hanabusa jump to the Senate would have left her House seat open with Dems looking for someone to go to the mat with another rough battle against Republican Charles Djou, so again, Abercrombie does look like he's reasonably covering all sides as the titular leader of Hawaii's Democratic party.

Sen. Schatz's first vote may come in days as the term ends next week.  Due to Hawaii's laws on US Senate appointments, Schatz can serve until 2014 before having to run in a special election, and then again in 2016 for Inouye's full term.  He says he will plan to run in both elections.

At only 40, time is definitely on his side.

[UPDATE]  Bob Cesca points out that not only is Abercrombie the nation's least popular Governor(!!!) but that the fact the white Abercrombie picking the white Schatz to represent the least white state in the union (at 24%) is probably not going to help his numbers.  On the other hand...that does make Hawaii's delegation...25% white.

StupidiNews

• Former President George H.W. Bush remains in intensive care in guarded condition as he battles complications arising from a "stubborn" fever.
• The Supreme Court has rejected an emergency injunction against Obamacare's birth control coverage provision.
• House Republicans say Senate Democrats must now make the next move to avoid the fiscal cliff as time is running out.
• US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner says the country will hit the debt ceiling on Dec 31, the same day as the fiscal cliff.
• A jury has awarded Carnegie Mellon University a whopping $1.17 billion patent verdict over chipmaker Marvell Semiconductor.

Last Call

It's bad enough when the press second-guesses the President with endless bad advice, but it's a whole other ball game when Democratic senators do it.  Ezra Klein:

On Fox News Sunday, Sen. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), the outgoing chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, made a proposal to solve the “fiscal cliff.” The proposal isn’t going anywhere, but its specifics explain something important about the White House’s negotiating strategy.

“My own belief,” Conrad said, “is what we ought to do is take Speaker Boehner’s last offer, the president’s last offer, split the difference, and that would be a package of about $2.6 trillion.”

Chris Wallace, to his credit, pressed Conrad for details. And Conrad provided them. “The spending cuts would be $1.45 trillion. The revenue would be $1.15 trillion. So, you see there, that’s a combination of $2.6 trillion.”

This in an amazing offer for a Democrat to make. House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) has already accepted that “a balanced deal,” by his definition, would include a ratio of 1:1 spending cuts to tax increases. Indeed, his second offer included $1 trillion in tax increases in return for $1 trillion in spending cuts ($1.3 trillion if you count interest). By averaging Boehner’s second offer with Obama’s third offer — that is to say, by starting from a baseline that includes more rounds of Democratic concessions than Republican concessions — Conrad is proposing a more lopsided deal than Boehner is currently asking for. 

To recap, we have sitting Democratic senators going on national TV and blowing huge holes in the President's position, with this "If I were President" crap.  You're not.  Stop sabotaging your party, moron.

To make it clear just how much of a meathead Conrad is, he's giving Boehner and the Republicans a better deal than Boehner himself offered, for no other discernible reason than for the political edification of Kent Conrad as kingmaker, in his wild dreams of "The Senator who saved America from the Fiscal Cliff."

If I'm the White House, I'm calling up Conrad's office and telling him if he ever pulls this crap again, his head is going home to North Dakota about 2 weeks ahead of the rest of him.

Nonsense like this is exactly why President Obama never had 60 reliable votes in the Senate.  Kent Conrad, Ben Nelson, Evan Bayh, Blanche Lincoln, Joe Lieberman...the list goes on.  Too many Senators thought they knew better than "that there Obama boy."

All of them, including Conrad, are gone for good as of January 3.   President Obama is still there.  There's a lesson there to be learned that won't be.

And A Merry Cliff-Mess To All

The always awesome LOLGOP has a piece on the five outcomes of this week's Fiscal Cliffmas deal (or possible lack of one:)

While the sequestration President Obama and Speaker Boehner agreed on in 2011 to avert the manufactured debt limit crisis will include $11 billion in Medicare cuts along with billions in defense and other cuts, it would not change any benefits that beneficiaries of the program receive. But there’s no doubt that if the whole of cuts and tax breaks ending in the fiscal cliff are allowed to come into being — cutting the deficit in half — they would eventually damage our already-shaky economy, despite the fact that right-wingers have been claiming for years that the deficit was to blame for our slow recovery. And if Republicans want to hold the debt limit — which expires early in 2013 — hostage again, a fiscal crisis could be inevitable.

Well true.  So what could happen?  LOL sees 5 possible outcomes:

1. Three month or more punt (GOP wins, unlikely)
2. President Obama's most recent offer.
3. Compromise between Obama offer and Boehner "Plan B".
4. Short-term cliff jumping, then a deal (Most likely scenario)
5. Thelma and Louise and no looking back.

Given 2 and 3 have already been rejected, and 5 will cause Wall Street to have a major sad (not to mention the economy, the American people, and the global economy) that leaves 1 and 4.  Republicans are going to be pushing for 1 as it disarms the President's leverage and gets them off the hook.  Democrats are going to be pushing for 4 for the opposite reason.

My money's still on 4, as is LOLGOP's. We'll see where we land this Cliff-Mess season.

Naming The WOLVEREEEEEENS In Our Midst

The latest conservative freakout:  gun ownership permits are the new Obama enemies list.

An interactive map showing the names and addresses of all handgun permit-holders in New York's Westchester and Rockland counties has drawn a response from mostly disgruntled readers since it was posted Saturday on a newspaper's website.

The interactive map published by the Journal News, prompting more than 1,300 comments as of Tuesday, allows readers to zoom in on red dots that indicate which residents are licensed to own pistols or revolvers.

"So should we start wearing yellow Stars of David so the general public can be aware of who we are??" wrote one commenter.

Sure.  This is just like the persecution of Jews in Germany, guys, they had guns too.  

What happened to "Bring it on, libtards!"  Aren't you proud of owning your gun, as a warning to all those bad guys out there that you're ready to water the Tree of Liberty at any time?  What about it, Reasonoids?  Isn't this information being free?

Do you own a registered gun? Well, they know where you live. By "they" I mean the government (which you knew), and the Freedom of Information Act-using, technology wielding media, which can with some effort build maps like the one you see on the right, showing the Westchester County addresses of people who have registered their handguns.

You think Matt Welch and his crew of merry pirates would be thrilled.  Nope.

The map, which "does not include owners of long guns — rifles or shotguns — which can be purchased without a permit," was brought to my attention by Twitterer "Russ" (@burnt_wick), who comments that this "is why you should acquire all of your firearms illegally." 

Ahh, there's the pouty anarchist I know.  The freakout is pretty epic:

My guess would be that the number of people in that area who would like more information about food stamp recipients, families on welfare rolls, or other government programs far exceeds the number who want info on gun owners. Why not publish that information?

It's nobody's business whether you've got a gun permit, or if you accept food stamps. This outrageous violation of privacy by ignorant liberals should be denounced by both sides. And if I were not a gun owner and lived in that area, I would be livid. The paper just put that family at risk because the criminal element now knows who is helpless and who can defend themselves.

On the contrary, Republican small-government conservatives think it's everyone's business if you accept food stamps, and as such think you should be drug-tested before you should be allowed to receive food because of course all people on food stamps are potential criminals.  You know, unlike gun owners.

Oh, and these are the same people who want a national database of the mentally ill, but a map of gun owners is just like the Holocaust. 

There's your "outrageous violation of privacy", morons.

StupidiNews!

• President Obama will cut short his family Hawaii vacation to return to Washington DC today and tackle the fiscal cliff.
• Famed Russian arms designer Mikhail Kalashnikov, cfather of the AK-47 rifle, is intensive care after complaining of weakness and chest pain.
• Environmentalists and local officials in North Carolina and Virginia are raising concerns about a planned $10 billion uranium mine in southeastern Virginia.
• It's Volkswagen versus General Motors in China as trade disputes with Japan sink Toyota to a distant third in Chinese auto sales.
• The world's property insurance giants are taking climate change seriously as weather-related incidents are costing the industry $1.2 trillion yearly.

Last Call

You didn't actually think a slimeball outfit like FreedomWorks, the Republican money machine led by former GOP House Speaker Dick Armey, was going to be able to spend tens of millions of dollars in a losing effort to elect basically zero Republicans and yet that nobody's head was going to roll, right?

Take it away, David Corn!

When the news broke in early December that former GOP Rep. Dick Armey had abruptly resigned as chairman of FreedomWorks, a powerhouse of the conservative movement and an instrumental force within the tea party, Armey maintained that the nasty split was due to differences he had with the top management of FreedomWorks about the group's operations and future. Immediately, media reports disclosed that Armey had been concerned that Matt Kibbe, the group's president, had used FreedomWorks resources to promote a book he had written (which was released in June) and that Armey himself had received an $8 million payout from a FreedomWorks board member to ease his departure. But internal documents obtained by Mother Jones show that the bitter war inside FreedomWorks has also resulted in allegations of staff wrongdoing (prompting an investigation by lawyers) and counter-allegations that Armey and his allies tried to turn FreedomWorks into a partisan outfit backing establishment Republicans over tea party insurgents.

Grab some popcorn and find a comfortable chair, folks.  This sordid tale of winger cannibalism is about to begin.

On December 12, James Burnley IV and C. Boyden Gray, two FreedomWorks board members (and allies of Armey), sent Kibbe a letter informing him that they had received "allegations of wrongdoing by the organization or its employees." They notified Kibbe that the group's board of trustees had retained two attorneys, Alfred Regnery and David Martin, to conduct an independent investigation of the allegations. Burnley and Gray ordered Kibbe to cooperate with the lawyers, to make sure no records were "destroyed, deleted, modified or otherwise tampered with," and to send Regnery a check for $25,000 to cover his initial fees. (Regnery, a prominent conservative, is the past president of Regnery Publishing, a right-wing firm that has put out books by Ann Coulter, Michelle Malkin, Pat Buchanan, and other notable conservatives.) The letter did not specify the allegations being investigated. In an interview with Mother Jones, Burnley declined to discuss the alleged wrongdoing at FreedomWorks. "The letter speaks for itself," he says. Gray, Kibbe, and a spokeswoman for FreedomWorks did not respond to requests for comment.

So Dick Armey was shown the door by Matt Kibbe and the Tea Party wing of the organization.  As a result, Armey's remaining allies in FreedomWorks accused Matt Kibbe of wrongdoing.  But now Kibbe has fired back:

Shortly after receiving the December 12 letter, Kibbe wrote a memo outlining his beef with Armey, Burnley, and Gray. In the document—titled "Republican Insiders Attempt Hostile Takeover of FreedomWorks"—Kibbe accused the three of being shills for the Republican establishment and undercutting the group's standing as an independent, non-partisan, conservative organization. (FreedomWorks has at times endorsed tea party candidates in primary elections against mainstream or incumbent Republicans, drawing the ire of mainline Republicans.) Kibbe charged that the three men were trying to punish him for defying their effort to steer FreedomWorks into the conventional Republican fold. He contended that the divisive fight within FreedomWorks was not really about his book contract or other organizational matters; it was a grand ideological clash pitting those fully loyal to the tea party cause (such as Kibbe) against backroom, Washington-centric pols attempting to wield their influence to benefit their pals.

Now the big question:  given the fact that basically nobody FreedomWorks got money to actually won in November, if you're a big-time GOP donor, are you going to give these clowns another $100 million to blow in 2014?

I'm thinking FreedomWorks won't be the only GOP dark money operation to implode before November 2014, either.  Watch the bonfire, kids.  It'll keep you warm this winter, as the long-predicted GOP civil war is about to break into the open.

All I Want For Christmas Is Fluffy's Head

Apparently, when our conservative blogger friends aren't getting into the spirit of Christ's word unto men by celebrating the guy's birthday through calling their liberal neighbors ignorant know-it-alls and glib and warped totalitarians, they're too busy spending the day gleefully plotting the prosecution of people who think peace on Earth might be a good idea.

On Sunday, in an interview with the National Rifle Association’s head, Wayne LaPierre, Gregory displayed what appeared to be a 30-bullet gun magazine. He pushed LaPierre on the question of whether fewer children would have died during the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre this month had the gunman had access to fewer bullets.

The presence of the gun magazine on the show raises questions about a section in the D.C. code — much cited by conservatives and gun rights activists after “Meet the Press” on Sunday — which stipulates that “No person in the District shall possess, sell, or transfer any large capacity ammunition feeding device regardless of whether the device is attached to a firearm. For the purposes of this subsection, the term ‘large capacity ammunition feeding device’ means a magazine,” among other devices.

As such, the DC Metro cops are now investigating this "incident".  Nobody's happier than our old friend Col. Mustard, who has decided that David Gregory must burn as a lesson to liberals and conservatives alike, and that because NBC won't respond to him, that they must be guilty.

There's your Christ-like behavior on Christmas.  And people wonder why I'm agnostic.

Not A Good Christmas For Hockey Fans

As the National Hockey Leagues lockout pitting millionaire players versus multimillionaire owners reaches the 100-day mark, it's fans who are getting the biggest lumps of coal this year.

Team owners have wiped out 625 games through January 14, just over half the planned schedule that was to have started in October, and vow they will not stage a season with less than 48 games per team, requiring a mid-January deal.

Players, who were paid 57 percent of revenues under the old deal, have moved closer to the 50-50 split found in other North American sports, but want owners to increase the amount of shared revenue from strong teams to bolster the fortunes of owners pleading poverty under the previous system.

Ice hockey fans, who returned from the prior lockout in record-setting numbers, have lost half a season because rich players and richer owners cannot hammer out a way to divide $3.3 billion in annual revenues.

Players have approved decertifying the NHL Players Association as a union to allow players to file US anti-trust lawsuits against NHL club owners, although that move has not yet been made.

Forget the fiscal cliff, we're talking about the very real prospect of the end of pro hockey here in North America.  Two lost seasons out of nine when you're arguing about who gets the tens of millions the fans give you to play, and you don't play two entire seasons in a decade because you can't decide who should get even more millions, in this economy?

The entire league can go straight to hell.

Sorry, NHL.  Columbus Bluejax tickets being easy to get or no, I'm sticking with minor league hockey from now on.  At least the Cincinnati Cyclones take to the ice.

Merry Christmas, you greedy jagoffs.

StupidiNews, Christmas Edition!

• Emmy winning actor Jack Klugman, known for his roles in The Odd Couple and Quincy, has died at the age of 90.
• Former British PM Margaret Thatcher is spending Christmas Day in a London hospital recovering from bladder surgery.
• A team of architects from Puerto Rico have submitted the winning design to rebuild Port-au-Prince's cathedral, destroyed in the devastating Haiti earthquake three years ago.
• Utility companies in the Northeast are looking towards drone technology to help them quickly assess damage from future storms like Sandy.
• An Australian study finds termites stockpile gold particles in their mounds, indicating nearby larger deposits of precious metals.

Last Call

If there is going to be a fiscal cliff deal before January 1, it's quite possible that the late Sen. Daniel Inouye's seat will have to be filled in order to have someone on hand to help break a guaranteed GOP filibuster. 

In his last wishes, Sen. Inouye expressed his desire to have current Rep. Colleen Hanabusa replace him by sending a personal deathbed letter to Gov. Neil Abercrombie, but that's apparently causing something of a stir in Sensible Centrist circles, who are apparently arguing that Abercrombie should fight back against Hawaii's old guard political machine and appoint somebody else.

Political analyst and University of Hawaii political science professor emeritus Neal Milner said Inouye knew exactly what he was doing when sent the letter to Abercrombie. It was meant to put the governor on the spot.

“What’s pretty elegant about this is how straightforward this is,” Milner said. “It’s about as straightforward as it can be and it’s about as dramatic as it can be. It certainly does raise the ante.”

It had been assumed that Hanabusa would be Inouye’s successor when the senator eventually left office, and over the years it appeared the senator had taken a liking to the congresswoman, according to political experts. The two even had lunch just before he entered the hospital.

Milner said it’s also likely that when the senator looked around at his options that he saw a “thin bench” of replacement candidates.

“If you put yourself in his position and looked around to see who was qualified to take his position there’s not much to look at,” Milner said. “The pool gets narrowed very quickly if you look at it through the eyes of the senator. He’s not interested in pulling someone out of nowhere and giving him or her the seat. That just wouldn’t register with him.”

It's also political maneuvering, something Inouye knew a lot about.

Whoever Abercrombie does appoint will most likely serve out until the end of their days in the seat, given the state's politics. 

Abercrombie is said by several close to him to prefer other candidates over Hanabusa. They include Blake Oshiro, his deputy chief of staff, Brian Schatz, his lieutenant governor — even Ed Case, with whom he served with in Congress. Case, 60, announced Sunday he was applying for the job.

Age may also be a consideration. Oshiro and Schatz are in their early 40s, meaning they could theoretically serve longer in the Senate and build up greater seniority. Hanabusa is 61 and Hirono is 65.

Harry Reid wants Abercrombie to make up his mind pretty quickly, regardless.  We'll see what happens.  This flap seems to be all about getting somebody other than Hanabusa in the office, and again a lot of that favors moderate Ed Case.  Frankly, I've got no problem with Hanabusa in the office, and I'd take Ed Case in Kentucky in a microsecond, but I think this is meddling with the Hawaii Democratic Party, plain and simple.

I think Abercrombie will go with Hanabusa.

Season's Greetings!

Merry Christmas from Bon and an elk named Fred!

Insert Your Own Crapo Joke Here

Idaho GOP Sen. Mike Crapo had a bit of a rough weekend, being arrested for a DUI early Sunday morning in Virginia while, you know, being a supposedly devout and tee-totaling Mormon.

Sen. Michael Crapo (R-ID) apologized late Sunday in a written statement released by his office following his arrest on suspicion of drunken driving.

In an email to TPM, Crapo’s spokesman Lindsay Nothern said the senator was charged with a misdemeanor of drunken driving early Sunday after being pulled over in Alexandria, Va. for running a red light. Crapo was released from custody upon posting $1,000 bond, according to Nothern. The senator is scheduled to appear in court on Jan. 4.

"I am deeply sorry for the actions that resulted in this circumstance," Crapo said in the statement. "I made a mistake for which I apologize to my family, my Idaho constituents and any others who have put their trust in me. I accept total responsibility and will deal with whatever penalty comes my way in this matter. I will also undertake measures to ensure that this circumstance is never repeated."

Virginia is pretty tough on DUIs.  Crapo is facing a mandatory $250 fine and a year long license suspension, plus the installation of a dashboard breath test device on his car for that year.  Crapo was re-elected to a third term two years ago.  I don't expect any political fallout from this, but the people of Idaho may surprise me.

We'll see where Crapo's dice roll.