Sunday, April 11, 2010

Correlation Does Not Equal Causation

But sometimes the correlations are damned interesting anyway.  This one's making the rounds today from Fourth Branch:
Perhaps more interesting is looking at where federal spending is directed. The red states in the map below are states which received more than $1.00 in federal money for every $1.00 in taxes paid by residents of that state. Blue states are states which received less than $1.00 in federal money for every $1.00 paid by residents of that state in taxes (information from a 2005 study by the Tax Foundation).
Spending by State
If that map looks familiar, perhaps it is because it closely resembles the red and blue state divide from the 2008 presidential election (red states voted for McCain, blue for Obama).
2008 Presidential Election Map
There is a very strong correlation, then, between a state voting for Republicans and receiving more in federal spending than its residents pay to the federal government in taxes (the rust belt and Texas being notable exceptions). In essence, those in blue states are subsidizing those in red states. Both red and blue states appear to be acting politically in opposition to their economic interests. Blue states are voting for candidates who are likely to continue the policies of red state subsidization while red states are voting for candidates who profess a desire to reduce federal spending (and presumably red state subsidization).
In other words, the states that voted for McCain are the ones getting taxpayer money from other states, the exceptions being Texas who pays more in, and the rust belt states, which get a bit more out than $1.00 for every federal tax dollar they pay.  States like North Carolina and Indiana were very close and could have gone either way.  They have been Republican in the past, along with Ohio and Pennsylvania.

For the most part, southern and western states are getting paid for by states like New York, California, and Florida.  Red states come out ahead in federal taxes.  They are a net drain on the economy.

And these are the states complaining the loudest about being taxed too much.

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