A Weiner May Be The Republicans In NY-9

The latest poll numbers this weekend for tomorrow's special election in New York to replace Anthony Weiner aren't looking good for the Democrat, NY State Assemblyman David Weprin, in his race against Republican Bob Turner.  The wild card is Socialist Workers Party candidate Christopher Hoeppner, who is taking 4% of the vote...and Weprin is losing in a true blue Dem district by six in the latest PPP poll.

To determine just how upset NY-09 voters are with government at the moment, PPP asked a series of questions about Congress, the President and direction of the country. President Obama logged only a 31 percent approval rating in the district versus 56 percent disapproval, and Congressional Republicans registered the same approval with 51 percent against. When PPP asked which of those two choices respondents had more faith in to lead the country at the moment, voters in this Democratic district picked the GOP by a slim margin, 44 percent to President Obama’s 42. That frustration with Obama translates into success for Turner within the poll: 23 percent of those who voted for the President in 2008 said they will vote for Turner on Tuesday.

The new poll also confirms what a Siena survey said last week, that Weprin is getting crushed among independent voters and is losing a healthy number of Democrats. In fact, the PPP numbers show him only holding on to 58 percent of his own party, along with only 26 percent of independents, which is actually smaller than the amount of Dems who say they will go for Turner, 29. Turner also gets the support of 83 percent of Republicans and 58 percent of independents.

Weprin still maintains a positive favorability rating, which is not to say his campaign has been perfect, but it further emphasizes the drag that national issues are putting on the Democrat. “If Dems lose this race blaming it on Weprin is an excuse and ignores the bigger issues,” PPP Pollster Tom Jensen tweeted before the release of the numbers. He also pointed to a finding that “37% in NY-9 say Israel ‘very important’ to their votes. They support Turner over Weprin 71-22.” Siena pollster Stan Greenberg was asked about the “Israel effect” on Friday but brushed aside the issue, saying “I don’t see it at all.” 

If the "throw the bums out" effect is favoring the Republicans right now in a district that hasn't had a GOP Representative in nearly 90 years, then something's clearly wrong with the electorate and with Dems specifically.  Dems are clearly not getting behind Weprin, but that 31% approval rating in the district is a bad, bad sign.

We'll see how tomorrow's vote turns out, after all Democrats won a number of special elections in 2009 and 2010 only to lose 63 House seats last November, but this is all kinds of bad if Weprin goes down.