Friday, February 7, 2014

The Turtle In Trouble?

The newest Lexington Herald-Leader/WKYT Bluegrass poll for Kentucky's Senate race this year finds Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes up 4 points over Senate GOP minority leader Mitch McConnell, 46-42%, and the news gets worse for him:

In an especially troubling sign for McConnell, his job-approval rating was two points below the approval rating poll respondents gave President Barack Obama, who remains deeply unpopular in the state. Only 32 percent approved of McConnell, compared to 34 percent for Obama. Both men won a disapprove rating from 60 percent of those surveyed. 
With women and young voters, McConnell trails Grimes badly, losing the women vote 49 percent to 37 percent and the 18-34 demographic 43 percent to 34 percent. 
Among voters who identified themselves as politically "moderate," another key demographic, 55 percent said they had an unfavorable view of McConnell, compared to 15 percent for Grimes. In the General Election match-up, Grimes holds a 20-point advantage over McConnell among moderates. "McConnell has the support of conservatives and Grimes has the support of liberals, both of which are to be expected," according to SurveyUSA's analysis of the poll. "But Grimes outperforms McConnell five-to-three among moderates, and on this rock she builds her church."

As much as this is NOBAMA GO BACK TO KENYA country here in Kentucky, to see the same level of hatred directed at Mitch the Turtle is really, really something.  But I wouldn't put too much stock in McConnell's terrible approval rating:  He's stomping Matt Bevin, his Tea Party primary challenger, in this poll by 26 points, and given these numbers against Grimes he's got at least 10% of Kentucky voters willing to vote for him even though they don't approve of him anymore.

In other words, Republicans and Obama haters will gladly vote for Mitch again, but this will be a tough, tough race for him.

If this race is about Mitch McConnell, he loses.  If this race is about Barack Obama, Grimes loses.

Read more here:

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