Monday, November 3, 2014

So Where Do We Stand?

Heading into tomorrow, the final Senate predictions are on the table for the pundits:

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight has the GOP chance at 74%, picking up 7.5 seats.

Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium pegs the GOP at 65%, with 6 seats.

NY Times' Leo model has the GOP chance at 70%, with 7 pickups.

WaPo's Election Lab gives the GOP a 96% chance, with 8 seats gained.

HuffPo's Pollster forecast has GOP Senate control at 77%, with 7 more seats.

Finally, Real Clear Politics has the GOP picking up 7 seats.

Most of the disagreement comes as to which party Greg Orman would caucus with, so there's some hedging on that.  Pollster says there's a 1 in 9 chance Orman would get to decide who controls the Senate, but don't overlook Angus King flipping parties either in Maine.

But all of the major poll models have the GOP gaining the Senate.  It's not a done deal (unless you believe WaPo) but the general consensus is that the proverbial Rubenesque diva is maintaining light vocal chord exercises for her final aria of the evening.

The thing is there's a thin line between the GOP getting seven seats, and the GOP getting five seats and the Dems keeping the Senate. Most likely there will be runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana anyhow, and should the independent Orman win as well, we may not know who controls the Senate until mid-December.  This is my gut feeling, that the GOP will pick up five seats, Orman will win, and Louisiana and Georgia go to runoffs.

As far as the House goes, well, TPM offers six races to watch.  General consensus there is that the GOP will pick up around the same number of seats they will in the Senate, so if it starts looking like the Republicans will gain 10 or more House seats, it's going to be a long night tomorrow in the Senate.

We'll see.

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