Monday, December 7, 2015

Trump-eting Your Failure

The Donald's increasingly dangerous rhetoric may have given him a safe lead among his GOP cohorts, but it's also increasingly costing him the general election, particularly among Latino voters.

Hillary Clinton leads the Republican presidential field in hypothetical general-election match-ups, with Ben Carson and Marco Rubio running the closest to her, according to a new national MSNBC/Telemundo/Marist poll. 
And with just one exception, the margin of Clinton's lead among Latino voters determines just how competitive each match-up is. 
Clinton's biggest lead is against current GOP frontrunner Donald Trump: She's ahead of him by 11 points among all voters, 52 percent to 41 percent, and a whopping 42 points among Latino voters, 69 percent to 27 percent. 
The former Democratic secretary of state leads Ted Cruz by seven points nationally, 51 percent to 44 percent, and by 27 points among Latinos, 61 percent to 34 percent.
Clinton holds a four-point advantage over Jeb Bush, 49 percent to 45 percent, and a 26-point lead among Latinos, 61 percent to 35 percent. 
She's ahead of Marco Rubio by three points among all voters, 48 percent to 45 percent, and 19 points among Latinos, 57 percent to 38 percent. 
And Clinton leads Ben Carson by just one point, 48 percent to 47 percent, and she holds a 26-point edge among Latinos, 61 percent to 35 percent.

I know there's not much stock you can put in polls eleven months out, but it's an indication at least that among those who are paying attention to the race, Clinton would have a cakewalk against Trump or Cruz.  Against Bush, Carson or Rubio, not so much.

Still a long way to go before November though, and while the race appears to be changing weekly, in reality both Clinton and Trump have lead their respective primary polls for several consecutive months now.

If things hold, it's going to be Goldwater all over again, and the Republicans know it.

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