Thursday, December 31, 2015

Zandar's 2015 Scorecard

So how did I do in 2015?  Let's run the numbers:

1) Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Rand Paul, and Jeb Bush will make it all official in 2015.  All of them will be in the race for the White House.  How far they get, well, that's for this time next year, isn't it?

RIGHT:  All four are running for President.

2) Obama will have 25 or more presidential vetoes by the end of 2015.  Figure that's two a month, plus one for good measure.  Do not be surprised if it's less than this.  Mitch is not going to be able to get passed what he wants in the Senate.

WRONG: President Obama vetoed a GOP defense spending bill in October and a GOP bill to kill Obamacare in December.  Two is, you know, not 25.

3) The Supreme Court will strike down Obamacare subsidies in federal exchange states.  I'm not a lawyer by any stretch, but I know vindictive political backstabbing when I see it coming.  King v. Burwell is going to sorely test the GOP however.

WRONG: And I'm very glad that I was.  6-3 decision in favor of the Obama Administration here as Chief Justice Roberts gave us a solid decision sparing Obamacare once again.

4) Having said that, SCOTUS will also rule in favor of national same-sex marriage.  Hedge here that the decision may not come in 2015, but they'll take up a case to decide it before 2016. I just think Justice Kennedy wants this to be what he's remembered for.

RIGHT: Justice Kennedy for the win, 5-4.  And he will always be remembered for this decision, certainly.

5) Oil will close 2015 at under $60 a barrel.  Pretty huge hedge too, it'll probably be a lot lower.

RIGHT: Boy, was I right here.  Oil went from $55 a barrel in December 2014 to $35 a barrel in December 2015.  A major slowdown in Chinese demand cratered the oil market along with multiple other commodities,

6) Still feeling good about Marvel movies, so I'll say Ant-Man and Avengers: Age of Ultron will break $200 million

SPLIT:  The second Avengers movie easily topped that mark, but Ant-Man came up about $20 million short domestically.  Both crushed the $500 million mark worldwide, however, prompting a planned Ant-Man and The Wasp sequel. 

7) Google Glass will officially get the plug pulled.  At least on the home version.  Watch for the business model to stay viable, however.

RIGHT: Hell, this actually happened in back in January.

8) Apple iWatch will be huge.  Morgan Stanley says it could do anywhere from 30 million to 60 million, I'll peg my guess at 40 million worldwide in 2015.

WRONG:  Not even close!  At best, Apple moved only 7 million watches.  It doesn't mean the device is a failure, not when you sell seven million of the the things at $349 or more a piece...but I was definitely stupid to believe the hyped predictions on this one.

9) My off the wall projection:  A US embassy in Havana will be in place, with ambassador, before the end of 2015.  It'll also be the end of Marco Rubio, but hey.

RIGHT:  Pleasantly surprised at this one, with the embassy made official between President Obama and President Raul Castro in July, and Republicans were unable to block the promotion of diplomat Jeffrey DeLaurentis from Chief of Mission to interim Ambassador.  Wisely, President Obama hasn't picked a fight yet by naming a permanent Ambassador, meaning unless he did, I really wasn't going to lose this one.  Thanks Obama!

10) ZVTS will be here for another year.  Haven't lost on this one yet...

RIGHT:  Here I am.  Again.

6-3 and 1 is a pretty good record, frankly.  I'll take that any year.

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