Thursday, August 4, 2016

The View From Detroit And Derry

Donald Trump hasn't been doing the GOP brand any favors in Michigan, where GOP Gov. Rick Snyder still hasn't lifted a finger as far as a real solution to the ongoing Flint water crisis, and a new Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll shows Hillary Clinton with a 9-point lead in the Wolverine State.

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has widened her lead over Republican Donald Trump in Michigan as 3-in-5 likely voters say the New York businessman is not qualified to be president, according to a new poll conducted for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV
Clinton led Trump 41 percent to 32 percent in the statewide survey of 600 likely voters conducted Saturday through Monday following Clinton’s formal nomination at last week’s Democratic National Convention. 
The poll contains many troubling signs for Trump’s White House campaign, including a “shocking” lead for Clinton in the Republican strongholds of west and southwest Michigan, pollster Richard Czuba said. 
Sixty-one percent of likely general election voters said Trump is ill-prepared to be the nation’s commander-in-chief. The figure grows to 67 percent among women, a group with whom Trump performs poorly. Clinton has a commanding 21-percentage-point lead among female voters. 
He’s sitting in the cellar right now, and they’re going to have to do something to dramatically turn this around,” said Czuba, president of the Glengariff Group Inc. polling firm. “If I were a Republican running on this ticket right now, I’d be beyond nervous.”

If Trump is losing in Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo, he's done.  That would be the equivalent in Ohio of Trump losing in Cincinnati's northern suburbs or here in northern KY.  Most of all, the realization is setting in among Michigan Republicans that Trump is going to drag them to hell along with him.

Some 61% of Michiganders find Trump unqalified for the White House, while 57% find Clinton fit for the job..  Still, there's more than a quarter of voters in the state either still undecided or otherwise not voting for either Trump or Clinton, so there's still ground to be made up.

Still, these numbers are initially good for Clinton.  Trump isn't nearly as competitive in Rust Belt states as people seem so think he is.

And here's the rub: coming off the conventions, Clinton is doing even better in New Hampshire.

Hillary Clinton has opened up a 15-point advantage over Donald Trump in the battleground state of New Hampshire, according to the results of the latest WBUR poll released Thursday, which also found the state’s Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan with a double-digit lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte. 
The survey, conducted in the days immediately following the Democratic National Convention, found Clinton with 47 percent support among likely voters. Trump has the backing of 32 percent of voters, while Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson finished a distant third with 8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein took 3 percent. Another 2 percent indicated support for another candidate, while 7 percent did not know or refused to answer. 
Clinton held a much narrower two-point edge over Trump in a WMUR/University of New Hampshire poll taken before the convention. National polls taken after both conventions showed Clinton erasing any bounce Trump gained from the previous week when he briefly surged following the Republican National Convention.

Maggie Hassan is up by 10 over Kelly "The Third Amigo" Ayotte too.  Maybe America isn't as screwed as we thought.

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