Tuesday, January 17, 2017

As Goes Ohio, Goes The White House

Trump's win in Ohio wasn't just impressive for a Republican, in more than a third of Ohio counties it was an historic margin of victory for a Republican president.

With the ascension of Donald Trump coming this week, we decided to look again at Ohio’s presidential election results — and stumbled across some amazing facts that perhaps shed a different light on his victory than what we’ve seen to date. 
In 22 counties — exactly a quarter of Ohio’s total — Trump rolled up the largest percentage of any Republican ever. Yes, that’s since 1856. 
So that’s higher than the Bushes, Ronald Reagan, Teddy Roosevelt and several Ohio GOP presidents — all the way back through Abraham Lincoln. 
In 11 additional counties, the Trump share of the vote was the second highest for a Republican in Ohio history. 
Seven of the 22 record-breakers were in southeastern Ohio.

Trump won the Ohio counties along the Kentucky and WV borders by huge margins, and that gave him the state.  He also flipped Montgomery County, where Dayton is.

While much of the focus since Election Day justifiably has focused on traditionally Democratic counties that swung Trump’s way, a pair of new story lines emerges from these numbers. 
One is that many marginally Republican counties went for Trump in a big way. For example, coal country neighbors Belmont and Monroe counties each gave Mitt Romney about 53 percent support in 2012. But this time, 68 percent of Belmont’s voters and 72 percent of Monroe’s went for Trump. 
The other is that numerous faithfully Republican areas went huge for Trump. Adams County, at the southern tip of the state east of Cincinnati, registered from 61 to 63 percent support for every GOP candidate from 2000 on — until last year, when it backed Trump with 76 percent. 
Even Mercer County, the western county that went for Romney with 76 percent, topped that mark with an amazing 81 percent for Trump.

It was a long time coming, but at this point Ohio must be considered a strong red state.  Democrats need to look to somehow securing North Carolina and Florida if they wish to win in 2020.   The good news is that demographics favors the Dems there and in Virginia, not so much in the Midwest anymore.

Outside Illinois and Minnesota, the Dems are in trouble.  They've been dismantled in the Rust Belt locally.  Hopefully Trump will go a long way towards people giving the Dems another chance. Hopefully.

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