Friday, March 2, 2018

Trading Blows WIth The World

It's hard to overstate just how pissed off Republicans are over being blindsided by Trump's trade war announcement yesterday.  Rust Belt and Farm Belt Republicans just saw their 2018 re-election hopes go up in flames and they're not taking it quietly.

GOP lawmakers from farming states sharply warned President Donald Trump Thursday that his decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will cost Americans consumers — and could be devastating for him at the polls.

Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts, the Republican chairman of the Senate Agriculture Committee, struggled to find words to describe his emotions after being blindsided by Thursday's news that Trump would impose tariffs of 25 percent on steel and 10 percent on aluminum imports that sent stocks spiraling downward amid fears of a trade war.

"These are the people who voted for the president," Roberts said. "These are his people. One county in Kansas even voted for him 90 percent and they're not going to be happy at all about this."

Roberts was joined in criticizing the proposal by U.S. Sen. Ben Sasse, a Republican from neighboring Nebraska. Together they said the effect on farm states would be costly if foreign governments retaliate with tariffs on imports of U.S. goods, such as agricultural products.

"Let's be clear: The president is proposing a massive tax increase on American families. Protectionism is weak, not strong. You'd expect a policy this bad from a leftist administration, not a supposedly Republican one," Sasse said.

The stern admonishing was reminiscent of the pushback Republicans and conservatives gave Trump on immigration following a meeting in January.

However, Trump said the tariffs would help right decades of unfair trade policies. Trump told the group of executives who gathered at the White House, including representatives from Nucor Corp., AK Steel Holding Corp. and U.S. Steel Corp., that "you will have protection for the first time in a long while."

Trump said the full plan will be announced next week. The White House would not provide any specific details, including whether some trade partners would be exempt.

But Roberts and other Republicans from the Senate Finance Committee described the penalties as a ultimately "consumer tax," that would boomerang badly on the very rural and middle-class voters who supported his election in 2016.

Roberts worried that imposing the steep tariff could also wipe out any benefits from tax reform if higher manufacturing costs are passed on to consumers. He fears that unilateral withdrawal from NAFTA could be next on Trump's chopping block.

If Trump blows up NAFTA like everyone expects on top of this, the global trade war will be fully on and it's going to wreck the US economy overnight.  Retaliation from the EU and Asia will be swift, but if the tarriffs don't exclude Mexico and especially Canada, the economic damage will be immense.

President Trump on Friday continued bucking his advisers and GOP leaders by acknowledging for the first time he could be triggering a global trade war by imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum. 
And a few hours later he said that this was just the beginning, promising “RECIPROCAL TAXES” against any country that has an import duty on U.S. goods or services. 
In a series of Twitter posts, the first of which was launched before 6 a.m., Trump argued that the United States was being ripped off by other countries because the U.S. imports more goods than it exports from many countries. 
Many economists and trade experts have said this is how free trade works, particularly because the United States is the world’s wealthiest nation and wants access to foreign markets. But Trump believes that this is a reflection that importers take advantage of weak U.S. trade policies.
When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!

Yeah, Trump tweeted that little advice gem this morning. Now take this staggering igorance of world trade policy, factor in the end of NAFTA on top of the terrible GOP tax scam bill from December, and you guarantee another steep recession if not full-blown depression that will make 2008 look like a sunny day in Pago Pago.

The only bright spot is that I can't think of a better way to get Midwestern Trump voters to abandon the GOP in a more rapid and dramatic fashion in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania.  The GOP can count out Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa too if NAFTA goes, maybe even Texas and Oklahoma, maybe even long term.

For the rest of us though, dramatically higher prices on durable goods, construction materials and anything packaged in steel or aluminum cans are on the way.  You know, like pickup trucks, double wides and beer!

Enjoy, MAGA-land.  You're about to find out what happens to anyone who works with Trump and expects to win.

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