Thursday, March 5, 2020

The Blue Wave Rises, Con't

Democrats are finally getting serious about getting the Senate back, and that means Montana Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock is now reversing course and is expected to challenge GOP Sen. Steve Daines in November.

Democrats are increasingly optimistic Montana Gov. Steve Bullock will run for Senate this year, according to multiple people familiar with the matter.

Bullock has repeatedly denied interest in running for the Senate, both when he launched his presidential campaign last year and after he dropped out of the race after failing to gain traction. But in recent days, Democrats are starting to believe the two-term governor could jump in the race to challenge GOP Sen. Steve Daines, a move that would expand the Senate map for Democrats by giving them another battleground target in their bid to take back the chamber.

Bullock has not publicly indicated an interest in the race, and it is not certain Bullock will run, according to multiple Democratic sources. But the increased interest marks a serious departure from the previous widespread belief that recruiting Bullock into the race was a long shot. After his presidential run, he said he would not be running for Senate, and it was “just not what I want to do.”

Still, the governor has taken steps that indicate he’s reconsidered. Last month, he met with former President Barack Obama in Washington and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) in Montana. The filing deadline for the seat is Monday.
Matt McKenna, a longtime adviser to Bullock, did not address a potential bid in a statement to Politico. “I don’t have anything for you,” McKenna said.

The comment is a departure from previous denials that Bullock had any interest in the Senate race, including immediately after the Obama meeting last month, when McKenna told Politico “there will be a candidate for U.S. Senate in Montana against Steve Daines. It will not be Steve Bullock.”

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) said the state of play is “pretty much the same. I think that they haven’t said yes; they haven’t said no.”

Some Democrats in the state are hopeful there has been a shift.

“I know that he’s taken the response he’s gotten from Montanans very seriously. And I know that he knows quite vitally what’s at stake, and he’s got a decision to make,” said Jon Sesso, minority leader of the state Senate.

Sesso stressed that he has not talked to Bullock about the race in recent days. “I hope to hell he takes a run at it for two reasons: One, he can win. And No. 2, he’d be a hell of a senator for the state of Montana.”

“Montanans — will all due respect to the cadre of candidates that have entered the race so far — we believe in Gov. Bullock,” Sesso added. “He has demonstrated his ability to win a statewide race against formidable opposition, and so certainly Montanans have encouraged him in a significant way to consider it.”

Bullock has already more than proven he can win a statewide race in Montana.  He would make a great partner to Sen. Tester for the Democrats and while I wouldn't expect him to vote for absolutely everything put in front of him by a Democratic president and Nancy Pelosi, he'd be a damn sight better than Daines, who votes with Trump over 85% of the time.

Again, nothing a Democratic president wants to do in 2021 will happen if Mitch McConnell is still Senate Majority Leader in January.  No federal judges will be confirmed.  Certainly no Supreme Court justices nominated will even get a vote.  Hell, a Democratic president probably won't get any cabinet officials nominated.  All the federal agencies will still have Trump people running them.

So yes, going after every GOP Senate seat possible is the name of the game.

New PPP polls find Sara Gideon leading Susan Collins 47-43 in the Maine Senate race and Mark Kelly leading Martha McSally 47-42 in the Arizona Senate race. Additionally a PPP poll for a private client last week found Cal Cunningham leading Thom Tillis 46-41 in the North Carolina Senate race, and when PPP last polled the Colorado Senate race John Hickenlooper led Cory Gardner 51-38. This makes four Republican held US Senate seats where PPP has found Democratic challengers with at least a 4 point lead.
The Maine result is most interesting. When PPP first polled the Gideon-Collins match up for a private client last spring, Collins led by 18 points at 51-33. The reason for the 22 point shift since then is that in the wake of opposing impeachment, Collins has lost most of the crossover Democratic support she’s relied on for her success over the years. Last April Collins had a 32% approval rating with Hillary Clinton voters, and trailed Gideon only 59-28 with them head to head. Now she has just a 9% approval rating with Clinton voters, and trails Gideon 81-10 with them head to head.

Flipping four seats would be enough.  Flipping five with Bullock would be better.  Flipping Mitch out here in KY...dare I dream?

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