Thursday, April 9, 2020

Last Call For Ridin' With Biden

Now that Joe Biden is the presumptive nominee, the matchups right now are solidly in his favor against Donald Trump.

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a wide lead over President Donald Trump in the national race for the White House, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS
Biden leads Trump 53% to 42% among registered voters, roughly steady from CNN's poll in early March. The nationwide picture shows Biden starts with an edge among voters generally, but national polling cannot address the state-by-state electoral college race which ultimately determines the presidency. 
The coronavirus pandemic has drastically altered presidential campaigning. Biden and Trump have paused in-person campaign events, and states have pushed back primary elections until the summer months. 
Biden holds an edge over Trump as more trusted to handle several key issues, including the response to the coronavirus outbreak (52% to 43%), health care (57% to 39%) and helping the middle class (57% to 38%).  
But Trump narrowly tops Biden on who would do a better job handling the economy, with 50% saying the President would and 46% saying Biden, despite a down tick in Trump's approval rating for handling the economy and a sharp rise in negative views of the nation's economy, according to data from the same poll released earlier this week. 
Biden's advantages on health care and helping the middle class are bolstered by crossover from those who approve of Trump -- around one in 8 Americans who give Trump positive reviews think Biden would do a better job than him on health care and helping the middle class. 
And even though very few Democrats defect from Biden on those two issues, the President's edge on the economy gets a boost from the 16% of Democrats who say Trump would do a better job than Biden on the issue. 
In the general election match up, however, there is very little crossover support for either Biden or Trump among partisans: Biden is supported by 91% of Democrats, while Trump holds 96% of Republicans. Independent voters break for Biden, 52% behind the former vice president, 40% for Trump. 
The demographic divides that defined the 2016 election seem likely to persist in 2020. Biden carries 62% of women to 32% for Trump, while Trump leads among men (51% to 44% for Biden).

Biden is winning women by 30 points right now, and if that holds, he wins.  Trump can't make up that margin.  Overall, Biden has a 48-47% lead among non college graduates and a massive 63%-32% lead among college graduates.

The only thing keeping Trump in the race is white voters without college degrees, they prefer Trump 63-33%, and he needs a 30-point margin with them just to keep him within ten points overall of Biden.  White voters with college degrees prefer Biden by 27 points.

Joe Biden can win this.  Having said that, we already know the lengths Trump will go to in order to cheat and win, including not having an election, or one where only a fraction of people will be able to vote in.

Take nothing for granted, including your current voter registration.

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