Saturday, June 13, 2020

The Country Goes Viral, Con't

The US could suffer 130,000 coronavirus deaths by July 4, according to a projection released Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 
And Covid-19 cases could rise this summer as states reopen, the CDC's deputy director for infectious diseases said during a conference call with reporters. 
"If anything, we must be overprepared for what we might face later this year," said Dr. Jay Butler. "Getting the flu vaccine will be more important than ever, as flu and Covid-19 could be circulating together as we move into the fall and winter months." 
More cities and states have reported increasing rates of new coronavirus cases per day as the nationwide total number of cases passed 2 million this week. 
According to a CNN analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University, 19 states have increasing case rates, several of which have seen record or near-record highs. And for the first time, rising caseloads have led some officials to delay phased re-opening plans. 
Months into the pandemic, more than 114,300 people in the US have died, according to Johns Hopkins, with about 1,000 deaths reported each day. 
"We know the pandemic is not over," Butler said.

That 130,000 number makes sense if you expect the 1,000/day number to remain constant or drop slightly, but I think the number of deaths is going to rise significantly before July 4 and keep rising throughout next month as hospitals are overwhelmed.  New York planned for the worst *and* made a lot of mistakes, but they got lucky.  Texas, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, these places are opening back up restaurants and theaters at full capacity in the next week or two and it's going to get bad fast.

Social distancing is all but dead.

It's going to take another massive wave of deaths to fix that.

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