Indepen-Dunce Week: Bluenami Tsunami

I said last month that I wouldn't be convinced Joe Biden had any shot of defeating Trump until he was favored to take the 270 electoral votes he needed to win. Up until now it's been tossup after tossup, and tossups right now have to favor the incumbent. But now, Cook Political Report finally has Biden getting 279 electoral votes regardless of tossups, and finally, it's time to start to believe Biden can win. Cook's Amy Walter:

This election is looking more like a Democratic tsunami than simply a Blue wave. President Trump, mired in some of the lowest job approval ratings of his presidency, is trailing Biden by significant margins in key battleground states like Pennsylvania (8 points), Michigan (9 points), and Wisconsin (9 points). He’s even running behind Biden in his firewall states of Florida and North Carolina.

We’ve made changes to our Electoral College ratings to reflect this reality.

• Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska’s 2nd district move from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.
• Maine, once in Lean Democrat, moves to the safer Likely Democratic category.
• Georgia has joined Arizona, North Carolina and Florida in the Toss Up column, although, at this point, Biden would be slightly favored to win at least Arizona and Florida.
• Maine’s 2nd district has moved from Likely Republican to a more competitive Lean Republican.

These moves alone push Biden over the 270 electoral vote threshold (to 279).

Caveats still abound even as down-ballot races are shifting towards the Dems.

Can things change between now and November? Of course. So, this comes with that important caveat. But, we also know that the president is not interested in changing his approach or focus. As one strategist who has been doing extensive focus group work with suburban voters tells us, “they are mostly done with Trump.”

One of the biggest unknowns, however, is voting itself. As we’ve seen this spring and early summer, most states are not prepared for an onslaught of absentee ballots. And confusion about how/where to vote could impact turnout. Moreover, if voters start to sense that the race for president is a blow-out, will they be more willing to split their tickets to ensure a ‘check and balance’ in Washington next fall? At least one Republican I spoke with, however, was wary of a check and balance working this year, telling me that “people are looking for a restart and a reset.” That includes down-ballot candidates as well as the president.

The reality is that we won't know who won for at least a week after Election Day, if not two or three weeks.  A 279-269 scenario where Trump runs the table on tossups would still be a Biden win, but Trump could all but force a Supreme Court decision to move things to go to the House if votes aren't counted and certified by December 14th, when electors are supposed to meet in state capitals. 

Bush v Gore went until December 12th, 2000 and was decided just days before the elector deadline that year, the 18th (First Monday after the second Wednesday in December).  If Florida can go that long, imagine the Trumpies jamming up a half-dozen or more states this way to prevent Biden from being able to claim 270.

The point is, take nothing for granted.

Even the ability to vote.