Tuesday, August 4, 2020

Last Call For Ditching Mitch

Things are not looking good for Amy McGrath here in Kentucky when it comes to beating Mitch McConnell this fall, as a new poll finds her down 17 points.

A new survey by independent polling firm Morning Consult shows Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell with a commanding lead in his bid for a seventh term in Kentucky, leading 53% to 36% over his Democratic challenger Amy McGrath. 
About 700 likely voters in Kentucky were surveyed online from July 24 to Aug. 2 by Morning Consult, whose results have a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. 
The race between McConnell and McGrath is expected to be one of the most expensive U.S. Senate races in the country this year, as both campaigns had over $16 million in cash on hand at the end of June. 
McGrath spent over $9 million in June alone to pull out a narrow victory over underdog Charles Booker in the Democratic primary, whose campaign surged in the final month by portraying him as a more authentic and progressive Democrat. 
The poll showed McGrath still has work to do in consolidating support among Booker voters and other Kentucky Democrats, with 79% supporting her, 12% supporting McConnell and 6% indicating they will vote for someone else. 
McConnell had the support of 84% of Republicans surveyed, while independents favored the senator 45% to 33% over McGrath. 
Over 6% of the likely voters surveyed indicated they would vote for someone besides McConnell and McGrath, with nearly 6% still undecided. 
While a survey two weeks ago from the internal pollster of McGrath's campaign showed McConnell leading by only 4 percentage points, two other polls since June found McConnell up by at least 20 percentage points. 
A survey conducted in mid-June by Oakland, California-based pollster Civiqs and commissioned by progressive think tank Data for Progress found McConnell leading McGrath 53% to 33%.

This is going to be as bad or worse than 2014 and Alison Lundergan Grimes's loss.  Kentucky Democrats have always had a problem with registered Dems voting straight up for Republicans, but McGrath can't even get 80% of the party.  It's very clear that voters here still see Mitch as Senate Santa, delivering the money and the power to the state.  It worked for Hal Rogers in the House for decades, and it's worked for Mitch for some time now and will continue to.

Mitch is pretty much going to win this comfortably because voters here believe Mitch when he lies like this:

This is a lie.  It's Mitch and the Senate GOP who have refused to vote on the House Democrats' HEROES Act which passed May 15. But people here believe Mitch because he delivers. He's Senate leader.  He wouldn't lie to us, right?  Not to his constituents, right?

Oh, and Charles Booker?

He would be losing by 20 points or more. Just sayin'.

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