Monday, June 14, 2021

Bye Bye Bibi, Baby

In a 60-59 Israeli Knesset vote on Sunday evening, the new government of Naftali Bennett and his Lapid party and partners has been sworn in to replace Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu of course is vowing to bring down the government as soon as possible.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is vowing to lead his Likud Party back to power.

Netanyahu is slated to become opposition leader later Sunday when parliament is expected to approve a vote of confidence in a new coalition formed by his opponents.

In a speech to parliament, Netanyahu made clear he has no plans on giving up leadership of the Likud Party.

He vowed to “continue the great mission of my life, ensuring the security of Israel.”

“If it is destined for us to be in the opposition, we will do it with our backs straight until we topple this dangerous government and return to lead the country in our way,” he said.

Israel is set to swear in a new government on Sunday that will send Netanyahu into the opposition after a record 12 years in office and a political crisis that sparked four elections in two years.

Naftali Bennett, the head of a small ultranationalist party, will take over as prime minister. But if he wants to keep the job, he will have to maintain an unwieldy coalition of parties from the political right, left and center.

The eight parties, including a small Arab faction that is making history by sitting in the ruling coalition, are united in their opposition to Netanyahu and new elections but agree on little else. They are likely to pursue a modest agenda that seeks to reduce tensions with the Palestinians and maintain good relations with the U.S. without launching any major initiatives.

Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption, remains the head of the largest party in parliament and is expected to vigorously oppose the new government. If just one faction bolts, it could lose its majority and would be at risk of collapse, giving him an opening to return to power.

The country’s deep divisions were on vivid display as Bennett addressed parliament ahead of the vote. He was repeatedly interrupted and loudly heckled by supporters of Netanyahu, several of whom were escorted out of the chamber.

Bennett’s speech mostly dwelled on domestic issues, but he expressed opposition to U.S. efforts to revive Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers.

“Israel will not allow Iran to arm itself with nuclear weapons,” Bennett said, vowing to maintain Netanyahu’s confrontational policy. “Israel will not be a party to the agreement and will continue to preserve full freedom of action.”

Bennett nevertheless thanked President Joe Biden and the U.S. for its decades of support for Israel.

Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank, said the new government will likely be more stable than it appears.

“Even though it has a very narrow majority, it will be very difficult to topple and replace because the opposition is not cohesive,” he said. Each party in the coalition will want to prove that it can deliver, and for that they need “time and achievements.”
 
I don't see how the prospect of an ugly corruption trial is going to improve Bibi's chances to return to power, either. I would expect that after a conviction, Likud will boot him, and they may do so before that happens just to clear the decks and get his baggage behind them to make a new run at the brass ring.

Ahh, but having said all this, keep your eye on Naftali Bennett. We're going to find out that not being Bibi is a bar low enough that Bennett can clear, while still keeping 99.9% of Israel's current government and military policies, particularly towards continuing Palestinian apartheid. If anything Bennett will be under immediate pressure to make a brutal and bloody crackdown this summer.

Bibi's gone. It by no means guarantees anything will be better in the Middle East, but the die has been cast nonetheless. There was zero chance of improvement under Bibi. How much of a chance exists under Naftali Bennett, we'll see.

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