Tuesday, August 9, 2022

Ron's Gone Wrong, Con't

Steve M. points out that Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis may not be the lock Ron DeSantis believes Ron DeSantis to be in 2022, campaigning for a slate of other GOP gubernatorial proto-fascists.

Ron DeSantis is America's governor? Really? Because it's theoretically possible that, come next year, Ron DeSantis won't even be his own state's governor: Florida Politics reports
A poll released by two Florida progressive groups suggest Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis may face more resistance to re-election than expected.

Survey results released by Progress Florida and Florida Watch show 47% of registered voters intend to vote for DeSantis for re-election, while 44% intend to vote for U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist. DeSantis leads Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, 49%-43%.
A memo from the pollsters adds: 
Given his financial advantage DeSantis remains a favorite to win re-election, but this polarizing nature could put a ceiling on his support (DeSantis is viewed favorably by 50% of voters and unfavorably by 48%; 39% view him very favorably and 40% view him very unfavorably).
Importantly, this data comes from a poll weighted to reflect what would be the most pro-Republican electorate in recent history: with registered Republicans making up 41% of the electorate and registered Democrats 37%.The same poll shows Democrat Val Demings tied with incumbent Marco Rubio, 45%-45%, in this year's Senate race.

This isn't the only poll to show a tight gubernatorial race in Florida. A Phillips Academy survey in May showed DeSantis leading by less than a point. A poll released in early June by the Listener Group actually showed Crist leading by 1. (Crist is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination, according to the Real Clear Politics average; the primary is August 23.)

I know that DeSantis has more money than God in his campaign coffers. He probably won't lose. But he's campaigning for other people -- among them some of the worst figures in America -- as if he already has his own race won. Pretty arrogant for a guy who won his last race by four tenths of a point.
Which brings up the question, how accurate is this state polling anyway?
National polling is very accurate as a rule. But state polling is almost always wrong. The question is "How wrong?" and "In which direction?"  In 2020, state polling was off by a lot, badly overestimating Democratic candidates for Senate and Governor by an average of six points.
Probably the most infamous of these errors in 2020 was the Iowa US Senate race between Jodi Ernst and Theresa Greenfield. The polls for Greenfield has her winning, right up until the last couple of weeks when it turns out the polls, polling models, and polling results were fantastically wrong and Ernst handily won re-election by seven points. The major pollsters all had this race as a toss-up, and it was anything but.

And then there was Susan Collins in Maine, who won by 9 points when several pollsters said the race was not only not a toss-up, but that it favored Democrat Sara Gideon. The polls were off by double digits.

No, at this point, I really don't care what state polling has to say.  At this point we have to be fighting for every Senate seat and Governor's Mansion like our country depends on it.

Because it does.

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