1) GOP Rep. Kevin McCarthy still won't be House Speaker. This one, carried over from last year, assumed falsely that he'd get the Paul Ryan heave-ho. This time around we'll find out for sure in a few days. I expect multiple votes to fail, and for another Republican to step in, the smart money being on Rep. Steve Scalise.
2) Donald Trump will finally be indicted. It may be in Georgia for election tampering, it may be in New York for tax fraud or his payment to Stormy Daniels, or (far less likely) Special Counsel Jack Smith and AG Merrick Garland will finally present their grand unified federal case. But Trump doesn't have any more clock to run out. SCOTUS has left him wide open and vulnerable. How the country reacts to these indictments will determine much of our future as a democracy. If he's not indicted by the end of 2023, he never will be.
3) The Supreme Court will end affirmative action in college admissions. This one's as easy as falling off a log, folks. There are five, if not six votes (depending on Chief Justice Roberts) to dismantle race as a factor in getting into college, and depending on how broad the decision is, it could end some scholarships based on race, heritage grants, or even funding for HBCUs. As with 2022's destruction of abortion rights and executive agency rulemaking, this too will have a deleterious effect on the country for decades.
4) But, SCOTUS will side with the Biden Administration on ending Title 42. It has to, otherwise the Supreme Court would be sending immigration to the states and throwing the entire federal immigration system out. Both Gorsuch and Roberts seem very reluctant to do so, Roberts seemed like he stayed the lifting of Title 42 until a decision comes down by June.
5) I want to be wrong on this, but I believe a multi-state attack on power substations in order to cause a blackout is inevitable. It will be a simultaneous strike on dozens of substations in several states that will knock out power to millions. There have been multiple small scale attacks that are still being called "vandalism" at this point, not "terrorism". That will change in 2023.
6) Jerome Powell and the Fed will at last begin to cut interest rates. This won't happen until the second half of the year and only then after signs of a stalled economy, reduced inflation and even monthly job losses, but we'll see the Fed cut rates before the year is out.
7) Phase 5 of the MCU makes $1 billion in 2023. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania will introduce the Big Bad for the next few years in Kang the Conqueror, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 will be a huge hit, and The Marvels will top it off this summer. People are going to want an escape, and they will go to theaters to get there.
8) Dow 36,000, no seriously this time. Especially if number 6 is true, lowering interest rates will be like market steroids. 2022 was effectively a bear market. Then again, post-Covid, the Dow almost doubled in two years before coming back to earth. Things will rebound as Biden's infrastructure and climate change legislation starts kicking in.
9) My "way out there" prediction this year is Russian forces leave Ukraine. Yeah I know, the only sucker bet in the world worse than SCOTUS-watching is "less war!" But if things continue to go as badly for Putin as I think things will, including a "big" offensive in early 2023 that stalls out and finally breaks the Russian army, it's possible that he cuts his losses. Which would be good. It's far better than my other Way Out There At Number Nine prediction, which is China invading Taiwan...
And finally...
10) ZVTS rolls on for another year. I appreciate all of you sticking with me as this journey continues. We've navigated some dangerous waters and had some big wins and big losses in 2022, but I'll be here to continue to document the happenings. Thank you for being a reader, and I hope you'll continue to stay with us.
We'll see how it goes.
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