Thursday, March 15, 2018

Last Call For It's Mueller Time, Con't

It's been a bit since the last major move by Special Counsel Robert Mueller, now that we know he has plenty of cooperating witnesses and impressive amounts of testimony, it looks like this legal eagle has made his intentions clear. Mueller is no longer skirting around the Trump organization, he's going straight after it, sword drawn.

The special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, has subpoenaed the Trump Organization to turn over documents, including some related to Russia, according to two people briefed on the matter
. The order is the first known time that the special counsel demanded documents directly related to President Trump’s businesses, bringing the investigation closer to the president. 
The breadth of the subpoena was not clear, nor was it clear why Mr. Mueller issued it instead of simply asking for the documents from the company, an umbrella organization that oversees Mr. Trump’s business ventures. In the subpoena, delivered in recent weeks, Mr. Mueller ordered the Trump Organization to hand over all documents related to Russia and other topics he is investigating, the people said. 
The subpoena is the latest indication that the investigation, which Mr. Trump’s lawyers once regularly assured him would be completed by now, will drag on for at least several more months. Word of the subpoena comes as Mr. Mueller appears to be broadening his investigation to examine the role foreign money may have played in funding Mr. Trump’s political activities. In recent weeks, Mr. Mueller’s investigators have questioned witnesses, including an adviser to the United Arab Emirates, about the flow of Emirati money into the United States. 
Neither White House officials nor Alan S. Futerfas, a lawyer representing the Trump Organization, immediately responded to requests for comment. The Trump Organization has typically complied with requests from congressional investigators for documents for their own inquiries into Russian election interference, and there was no indication the company planned to fight Mr. Mueller about it.

The Trump Organization has said that it never had real estate holdings in Russia, but witnesses recently interviewed by Mr. Mueller have been asked about a possible real estate deal in Moscow. In 2015, a longtime business associate of Mr. Trump’s emailed Mr. Trump’s lawyer, Michael Cohen, at his Trump Organization account claiming he had ties to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and said that building a Trump Tower in Moscow would help Mr. Trump’s presidential campaign.

Mueller is going for the kill shot here.  Now we know why Trump has been so belligerent for the last several weeks, why the chaos in White House staffing has left a trail of scorched earth, where Trump's bunker mentality has come from, why Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump are on the outs with dear old dad and most importantly, why House Republicans shut down their investigation of Trump this week.

It was all meant to get out ahead of this leak before it hit.

Mueller is going after the Trump organization and its ties to Russia, money laundering, and the obstruction of justice cover-up.  It's at the core of this corruption, and Mueller is wading in.

I said a while ago that as soon as Mueller reached the point in his investigation that it touched Trump's personal finances, the red line that Donald Trump drew so long ago last year, that the real game would begin.

The man in the Oval Office is officially under investigation.  They can't deny it any more.

Here we go.

Dems Can't Win For Losing

Me, your humble blog host and amateur pundit: "Conor Lamb winning in PA-18 in a district that went for Trump by 20 points just 16 months ago in a open race shows how absolutely weak the Trump GOP is right now.  There are now dozens of House races that must be considered in play, and Republicans are facing losses that could actually top that of the Democrats in 2010.  Democrats can win nationally in red suburban districts with a pro-union, pro-choice, pro-equality message."

Mike Allen, Axios co-founder and professional political prognosticator: "How can Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats possibly recover from the devastating and historic loss that Conor Lamb handed them this week?"

Top Democrats tell me that if they take back the House in November, a restoration of Speaker Nancy Pelosi is no longer guaranteed. In fact, some well-wired House Democrats predict she will be forced aside after the election and replaced by a younger, less divisive Dem. 
The big picture: Conor Lamb, 33, won his U.S. House race in Pennsylvania this week after saying he wouldn't vote for her for leader — a new template for moderates. Pelosi has hung in through the minority, and remains the party's most consistent fundraiser. As for whether she'll return as Speaker, she has just said that it's up to the members. (Her allies note that she has never lost a leadership vote.)

But others have their eye on the gavel, and many members want a younger, newer face. Her No. 2 and longtime rival, House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer, 78, covets the job but is three months older than she is. 
Pelosi is more likely to be the bridge to a younger generation. A possible successor, who works the caucus behind the scenes, is Rep. Joe Crowley of Queens, N.Y., who turns 56 tomorrow. 
Another possible candidate who's getting buzz: Rep. Adam Schiff, a fellow Californian who has a sky-high profile as the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, investigating Russia's role in 2016. 
One Democratic source told me that Pelosi hears footsteps: “She used to be retributional. Now she’s more inclusive.” 
Pelosi allies see some of the criticism as sexist, and say she has always been inclusive of all parts of the caucus' diversity, including newer members. 
Pelosi told the Congressional Progressive Caucus at a retreat in Baltimore last week: "Every morning, I don a suit of armor, eat nails for breakfast, and go fight inequality." 
President Trump plans to invoke her frequently in midterm speeches, and Republicans already use her image to raise funds. And in campaigns this fall, many Dems challengers will be put on the spot about whether they'd vote for her as Speaker.

Pelosi is doomed!  Pelosi is finished!  Pelosi is an albatross and she'll destroy the Dems!

You know, because it's not like Trump is a major problem for the universe or anything.

Idiots.

Trump Cards, Con't

The pay-to-play klep-Trump-cracy that is America in 2018 continues unabated as lobbyist groups are now openly staying at Trump hotels in order to curry favor with the White House.

The oil industry's top lobby group is holding a two-day board meeting at the Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C., before its executive committee goes to the White House to voice concerns about President Donald Trump’s proposed steel tariffs, sources familiar with the meetings told POLITICO.

The American Petroleum Institute’s annual board meeting that started Wednesday could involve up to 200 people representing various oil and gas companies — including the top executives of major oil companies — paying to stay at Trump’s hotel. It’s not known how much API is paying to the hotel, which is controlled by the Trump Organization, the family-owned business headed by the president’s son Donald Jr.

“This kind of thing was a fear a lot of people had when the president did not divest from his business,” said Jordan Libowitz, spokesman for governance watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. “What’s stopping the API from going to the president and saying, ‘Hey we just dropped a lot of money at your hotel. Just wanted you to know that before we started this meeting’?”

Government conflict-of-interest rules do not apply to the president, but Libowitz said patronizing his business could be viewed as a way to try to influence Trump.

The Trump hotel has also hosted several foreign officials, including the Kuwaiti Embassy's National Day celebration and Bahrain's National Day party, drawing criticisms that the business violates the Constitution's foreign “Emoluments Clause,“ which prohibits officials from accepting gifts from foreign powers.

At the White House, the API executive committee is planning to air its concerns about Trump's steel tariffs and his warnings that the U.S. could walk away from NAFTA negotiations. Trump’s 25 percent tariff on imported steel and criticisms of the current NAFTA agreement have frustrated the industry, which is heavily dependent on foreign metal and international trade.

“The two issue are tariffs and NAFTA,” said a source who requested anonymity because the person was not authorized to talk to the press.

A Trump Hotel receptionist confirmed the API was holding a two-day event there. An API spokesman confirmed a two-day board meeting was currently taking place but did not offer further details.

Energy Secretary Rick Perry and Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke are scheduled to attend the board meeting at the Trump Hotel on Wednesday night, two sources told POLITICO. Press representatives for the Energy Department and Interior Department did not immediately respond to questions.

How is this not patently illegal?  Well, Republicans in Congress certainly don't care, and it's not like the executive branch is going to lift a finger.  But this is where America is now, a rapidly-failing banana republic where businessmen who want favorable treatment stay at the regime leader's hotel in the capital and make sure his deputies know it.  Can't hurt your odds of winning over the mercurial Trump, right?

It's a good thing we didn't elect that corrupt Clinton though, she might have had serious conflict of interest problems or something.

StupidiNews!

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Last Call For Getting Tough With Vlad

Oh, we're not getting tough with Putin at all, as our government is chock-full of Russian sycophants and useful idiots in Moscow's orbit, but at least our closest and oldest ally isn't putting up with his crap anymore.

British Prime Minister Theresa May on Wednesday ordered the immediate expulsion of 23 Russian diplomats believed to be involved in espionage, in the first reprisals against Moscow for a chemical attack on a former double agent
May, speaking to Parliament, said the response would include a halt to high-level meetings with Russian officials and the cancellation of a planned visit to Britain by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. 
She also said the royal family and government ministers would boycott this summer’s World Cup soccer tournament in Moscow. More countermeasures — some clandestine — are under consideration. 
The prime minister repeated the conclusion of British investigators that Russia had either deployed or lost control of a dangerous nerve agent used in the attack targeting former spy Sergei Skripal, 66, and his 33-year-old daughter, Yulia.

May said Russia’s dismissive response to her demand for explanation has “demonstrated complete disdain for the gravity of these events.” 
“Instead, they have treated the use of a military-grade nerve agent in Europe with sarcasm, contempt and defiance,” she told lawmakers.

The British leader gave no further details on the Russian diplomats ordered out of the country but said they were deemed “undeclared intelligence officers.” She called it the largest expulsion of Russian diplomats from Britain since Cold War-era retributions in the 1970s
.

We're in a new Cold War folks, we've been in one for years, and we're losing it.  Badly.

Expect swift Russian retaliation on both the diplomatic and economic fronts.  Moscow can make things rather uncomfortable for Europe if they want to, not that Vladimir gives a damn about what May thinks. 

This is a fight Putin has wanted for a long time, and now that he's taken the US off the board with Trump and company, and cracked the EU open with Brexit while picking up a few things in the Ukraine, he can make his next move.  The Germans are on the ropes with Merkel barely hanging on, the French have bigger problems to worry about right now with Marine Le Pen's merry crew of racists, and the rest of the EU is trying to keep the nationalist cancer in Poland from spreading.

The Brits are standing up to him on this for now, but I expect that will change sooner rather than later, and Vlad knows how to play the long game.  He's not going anywhere anytime soon.

The Problem With Pompeo

Joe Romm at Think Progress gives us the file on Trump's pick for Secretary of State to replace the humiliated Rex Tillerson, current CIA Director Mike Pompeo, who as a Kansas GOP congressman was one of the most odious people in politics today and the Republican party's number one climate denier.

In just four election cycles, 2010 through 2016, Pompeo received: $335,000 from Koch Industries employees (including $92,000 just from the Koch family); $69,000 from the Koch Industries PAC; $417,175 from Americans for Prosperity (which is the right-wing advocacy group founded by the Koch brothers); plus another $87,532 from “Other outside groups heavily funded by the Kochs.” 
That’s over $900,000 to buy one Congressman. No surprise, then, that Pompeo, who was a Tea Party member, is also a major denier of climate science. Pompeo described President Obama’s effort to cut carbon pollution at home (through the Clean Power Plan) and abroad (through the Paris climate deal) as a “perverse fixation on achieving his economically harmful environmental agenda” and as “worshiping a radical environmental agenda.” 
He called the Paris Climate Accord a “costly burden” in 2015, adding that “Congress must also do all in our power to fight against this damaging climate change proposal and pursue policies that support American energy, create new jobs, and power our economy.”
In reality, the Paris Climate Accord is hardly radical given that 200 nations unanimously agreed it is vital for preserving a livable climate. Indeed, it remains an incredible deal for America, since it would avert numerous catastrophic climate impacts on this country, while requiring us to merely continue reducing carbon dioxide emissions at the pace we have been in recent years. 
During his confirmation hearings for CIA director, Pompeo dodged all questionsabout climate change, saying “Frankly, as the director of CIA, I would prefer today not to get into the details of the climate debate and science.”
But the State Department plays a direct and key role in climate change — not just in international climate negotiations, but also in international aid and development, including choices about which energy sources developing countries should choose — so, such non-answers given as by Pompeo previously should not fly this time around.

You'd think so, and I'm sure Senate Dems will have some appropriately tough questions.  But keep in mind he's already been confirmed as CIA head, so there's nothing to make me think he'll be blocked for SecState.

Also, Pompeo is a screaming anti-LGBTQ bigot who will almost certainly rescind Obama-era passport gender indication guidelines for transgender Americans, so Senate Dems could in fact do something to stop him if they can stand together and convince some Republicans to do the same.

We'll see.

The Blue Wave Rises, Con't

This morning we don't know who yet is the winner in PA-18, Democrat Conor Lamb has a lead of six hundred and change, but over a thousand absentee ballots and thousands of provisional ballots have to be counted still, and Republican Rick Saccone is talking about filing for a recount.  But even if Saccone does end up coming from behind to win, the damage to the GOP last night is done.  There's no way the race should be this close in a district that Trump won by 19 points in November 2016 and Republicans now know they are in mortal peril come this November. Vox's Dylan Scott:

When you take a step back and look at the 2018 race for the House, you realize: There are more than 110 Republican-held House districts that Trump won by less than he won in the district where the Republican House candidate just effectively tied with the Democrat.

Strategists and election analysts on Twitter couldn’t quite agree on exactly how many districts — 114? 118? 119? — but the number is, by all accounts, greater than 110. A few months ago, you wouldn’t have heard Democratic operatives, even at their most optimistic, describe the 2018 battleground as that big. (As of last month, Democrats had just expanded their battleground map to 101 seats.)

There are the districts Hillary Clinton won, of course, but there are also the suburban, classically Republican districts where Trump has soured the electorate, and those white working-class districts with Obama-Trump voters.

This comes with plenty of caveats. This was a special election. Republican incumbents are going to be stronger than Republicans in an open seat like the Pennsylvania 18th. Conor Lamb was a particularly strong Democratic candidate, and Rick Saccone might have been an unusually weak Republican nominee.

But still: Democrats need 24 seats to reclaim the House majority. If Tuesday night is any guide, it looks like they will have a lot of opportunities to get them.

Think about what this means. In an average year maybe 5-10% of House seats are even in play, 95%+ of incumbents keep the seat in their own party every two years.  That usually means 20-40 seats are in play, and maybe half of those are toss-ups at most.  Districts are drawn that way for a reason.  Republicans have had the gerrymandering advantage recently nationally, but Democrats have done it too in some of the states they control.  They're designed to keep 90% of incumbents in power (and in the Senate, holding elections every six years accomplishes the same result).

But this time around even given the GOP's massive gerrymandering advantage in dozens of states, more than 110 GOP districts now have to be considered on the board for Democratic pickups.  That's more than 25% of the entire House in play and all of it red-to-blue.  Yes, there are districts where I expect Republicans to win a blue seat here or there (there are a couple of open Democratic seats in Minnesota and Nevada in rural Trump areas and New Hampshire's seat always seems to switch every couple of years) but Dems could pick up dozens in November.  Dozens.

By the way, Trump's visit to the district over the weekend just ended up reminding people what he did to their health care.

Public Policy Polling conducted a telephone exit poll election survey of voters who cast ballots in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District special election yesterday. Voters who voted in the contest were asked about the role of health care in their decision. 
The exit poll shows that health care was a top priority issue to voters in this district and that voters believed Democrat Conor Lamb’s views were more in step with theirs. 
In 2016, voters in this district backed Donald Trump by 20 points, but last night they backed a Democrat for Congress in a referendum on the health care plans of the Republican Congress: 
-Health care was a top issue to voters. Health care was ranked as a top issue for 52% of voters (15% saying it was the most important issue and another 37% saying it was very important). Only 19% said it was not that important or not important at all. 
- Conor Lamb won big especially among voters for whom health care was a top priority. Among voters who said health care was the most important issue for them, Lamb beat Rick Saccone 64-36 and among the broader group of voters who said it was either the most important or a very important issue Lamb beat Saccone 62-38
- On health care, voters said Lamb better reflected their views by 7 points (45% to 38%) over Saccone. With independents, that gap widened to 16 points with 50% saying Lamb’s health care views were more in line with theirs to only 34% for Saccone. 
- Voters were less likely to support Saccone because of the Republican health care agenda. Saccone’s support of the Republican health care agenda made 41% of voters less likely to vote for him and only 28% more likely to support him. 
-Voters in this heavily Republican district disapproved of the Republican efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act by 14 points (53% to 39%).

It's 2010 only in reverse, and the loss of Obamacare is going to decapitate Republicans in November. The GOP knows it.  Look for more Republicans to head for the exits this month.

StupidiNews!

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

He Only Hires The Best People

And speaking of personnel changes in the White House, Donald Trump sees people on TV he thinks are knowledgeable, he wants them in the White House. With Gary Cohn departing from the Trump regime in the wake of Trump's tariff disaster, the job of Chief Economic Adviser may end up going to America's worst economic pundit, Larry Kudlow.

Larry Kudlow is the leading contender to head President Donald Trump's National Economic Council and would take the job if offered it, CNBC's Jim Cramer reported Monday.

Trump has not formally offered the job, but Kudlow is a leading choice of not only Trump but also some of his advisors to replace Gary Cohn as the president's top economic advisor. A White House official, who declined to be named, confirmed to CNBC that Kudlow is on the list of candidates but said the administration did not have personnel announcements to make.

Kudlow declined to comment.

Kudlow, a CNBC senior contributor and longtime on-air personality, helped to craft economic policy during the Reagan administration. Cramer worked with Kudlow on the CNBC show "Kudlow and Cramer."

Cohn announced his resignation as head of the National Economic Council last week after he lost his battle to block the Trump administration's move to levy tariffs on steel and aluminum. Kudlow advocates for free trade and generally opposes tariffs. He expressed his disappointment with Cohn's departure.

Kudlow informally advised Trump on taxes and other issues during his 2016 run for the presidency.

I've spent close to ten years pointing out how wrong Larry Kudlow has been on the economy.  Now he may be advising Trump on how to run it.  If you somehow thought we were going to escape a brutal recession before, with Kudlow whispering in Trump's ear, we're headed there even faster.

Terminus Mortuus Est Rex

The Trump regime spring cleaning dirtying continues, and this one's big: Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is out, with CIA Director Mike Pompeo taking over.

President Trump has ousted Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and plans to nominate CIA Director Mike Pompeo to replace him as the nation’s top diplomat, orchestrating a major change to his national security team amid delicate negotiations with North Korea, White House officials said Tuesday.

Trump last Friday asked Tillerson to step aside, and the embattled diplomat cut short his trip to Africa on Monday to return to Washington.

Pompeo will replace him at the State Department, and Gina Haspel — the deputy director at the CIA — will succeed him at the CIA, becoming the first woman to run the spy agency, if confirmed.

In a statement issued to The Washington Post, Trump praised both Pompeo and Haspel.

“I am proud to nominate the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Mike Pompeo, to be our new Secretary of State,” Trump said. “Mike graduated first in his class at West Point, served with distinction in the U.S. Army, and graduated with Honors from Harvard Law School. He went on to serve in the U.S. House of Representatives with a proven record of working across the aisle.”

The president continued, “Gina Haspel, the Deputy Director of the CIA, will be nominated to replace Director Pompeo and she will be the CIA’s first-ever female director, a historic milestone. Mike and Gina have worked together for more than a year, and have developed a great mutual respect.”

Trump also had words of praise for Tillerson: “Finally, I want to thank Rex Tillerson for his service. A great deal has been accomplished over the last fourteen months, and I wish him and his family well.”

The president — who has long clashed will Tillerson, who he believes is “too establishment” in his thinking — felt it was important to make the change now, as he prepares for talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, as well as upcoming trade negotiations, three White House officials said.

Two things:  Trump definitely now feels he is unfettered and can do whatever the hell he wants to right now.  He's not wrong, nobody's going to try to stop him.  House Republicans surely proved that yesterday.  Trump says he told Rex on Friday that his services would no longer be required, Tillerson says that he was never told, but this announcement came just hours after Tillerson remarked that the State Department believed Russia was "clearly" behind the chemical weapon attack in Britain last week that put ex-Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in the hospital.

The second is that the odds of US military action against Syria and North Korea just went skyward.  Bringing in the CIA head as your new chief diplomat is not even pretending peace was ever on the table.  The only question now is the timeframe.

War is definitely coming.  In his own thoroughly corrupt but predictable way, Tillerson was the last holdout for diplomacy.  It's all swamp monsters now, and they're packing thermite and Everclear.

StupidiNews!

Monday, March 12, 2018

Last Call For Russian To Judgment, Con't

As I long suspected would happen (as the GOP wants to get to the campaign trail for 2018 midterms as soon as possible) Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee are now closing up the investigation into Trump and Russia and will undoubtedly find no evidence that anything was wrong.

The House Intelligence Committee has concluded its interviews for the investigation into possible collusion between President Donald Trump's campaign operation and Russia, a move that signals the beginning of the end for the panel's Russia probe, according to a source familiar with the matter. 
Rep. Mike Conaway, the Texas Republican leading the Russia investigation, is expected to announce Monday that the committee has concluded its interviews and will now be moving onto writing a final report summarizing its findings. 
The decision is expected to be met with sharp criticism from Democrats, who have said there are still scores of witnesses the committee should call, and argue that Republicans have failed to use subpoenas to obtain documents and require witnesses to answer questions that are central to the investigation. 
The committee is widely expected to issue two competing reports: one from Republicans that concludes no evidence of collusion was found, and another from Democrats that argues a case for collusion, as well as spells out all the avenues the committee did not investigate. 
Monday's expected announcement is likely to further inflame the partisanship that's consumed the House Intelligence Committee for the better part of a year, amid fights over Chairman Devin Nunes' role in the investigation and more recently over competing memos about alleged surveillance abuses at the FBI during the Obama administration. 
In another sign of the partisan tensions, the committee's top Democrat, Rep. Adam Schiff of California, had not been told as of midafternoon Monday that Republicans planned to end the witness interview portion of the Russia investigation, according to a Democratic source. Conaway and Schiff do plan to speak on Monday, another source said. 
A spokeswoman for Conaway declined comment.

The last thing House Republicans want right now is an investigation going into September or October.  They want their final report written and out of the way as quickly as they can so that Mueller can be fired and the outrage that generates will be long forgotten by voters come November.

They want Mueller gone, the investigation gone, and stories like this to go away.

One of the Arab world's top spies and a shadowy conduit to Vladimir Putin's Kremlin were present at a meeting in the Seychelles being probed by Robert Mueller's Russia investigation, DailyMail.com can disclose. 
The meeting between Erik Prince, the Trump donor and billionaire Blackwater founder whose sister is education secretary Betsy DeVos, and Kirill Dmitriev, a Russian banker close to the Kremlin, was convened by the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, Mohamed bin Zayed, who is the de factor joint ruler of the United Arab Emirates. 
But DailyMail.com can disclose that also present were bin Zayed's spy chief and a Palestinian seen as the crown prince's personal conduit to Putin's Kremlin. 
The two men - Hamad al Mazroie, the de facto head of the UAE intelligence service, and Mohammed Dahlan, a bin Zayed adviser who is fluent in Russian - were never named by Prince when he testified to the House intelligence committee about the meeting. 
It emerged last month that George Nader, a Lebanese-American businessman and Middle East expert with ties to the Trump administration was present.

Nader is now co-operating with Mueller after being stopped as he entered the U.S. in January and being served with a subpoena. 
The identities of the two newly-named attendees at the meeting were confirmed to DailyMail.com by a source close to bin Zayed, and a Kuwaiti lawmaker with access to intelligence on the UAE. 
The source close to bin Zayed said: 'Hamad supervises all these things. Those guys supervise major secret operations.'

Ending the House Intelligence Committee investigation is the first step in creating enough cover to fire Mueller.  Besides, come November, we're probably going to have not one but two wars to worry about.

The United States is "prepared to act if we must" to stop indiscriminate bombing of civilians in Syria, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley warned Monday as she circulated a new draft resolution demanding an immediate cease fire. 
Addressing the Security Council 16 days after it passed a resolution demanding a cease fire that largely has failed to stop the bombing or allow humanitarian access, Haley compared the situation on Monday to last year when the United States launched airstrikes against a Syrian military base after a deadly chemical weapons attack. 
"When the international community consistently fails to act, there are times when states are compelled to take their own action," Haley said. 
This is one of those times, she added.

"We warn any nation determined to impose its will through chemical attacks and inhuman suffering, but most especially the outlaw Syrian regime, the United States remains prepared to act if we must," she said. "It is not a path we prefer. But it is a path we have demonstrated we will take, and we are prepared to take again."

No doubt our good Russian friends want us to do just that.

The Blue Wave Rises, Con't

Greg Sargent at the Washington Post argues (correctly) that the fact tomorrow's PA-18 special election is even close in a district that Trump won by 20 points just 16 months ago is a screamingly loud alarm signaling just how bad of a midterm the GOP is facing this fall.

In the race’s final days, much of the GOP’s messaging appears focused not so much on the Trump/GOP tax cuts, or even on Trump’s tariffs, but rather on immigration, crime and Nancy Pelosi. An outside group allied with the House GOP recently launched spots slamming Democrat Conor Lamb as a “Pelosi liberal” and for allegedly supporting “sanctuary cities and amnesty for illegals.” The National Republican Congressional Committee has recently released ads that slam Lamb, a former prosecutor, as soft on gun traffickers. A super PAC allied with Trump has an ad that mentions the tax cuts but talks more about “Pelosi liberals.” 
A Democratic strategist working with the Lamb campaign who tracks ad buy information tells me that these ads represent the main spending on the GOP side in the closing days. Indeed, last week, Dave Weigel and Josh Kraushaar both reported Republicans had previously aired ads touting the tax cuts but cycled them out of the messaging, because, as Kraushaar put it, they were “barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines.” 
The reason the downplaying of Trump’s tax plan — and the emphasis instead on hot-button issues such as immigration — matter can be found in the makeup of this district. This is a place where Trump’s claim that his tax cuts are good for working people should carry weight. Trump won it by 20 points, and it has many of the sort of working-class white voters who apparently looked to Trump as an economic savior. But it turns out that this fact may explain why the tax cuts are not sufficiently resonating

This is what we saw in Virginia when Ralph Northam won last November.  The initial GOP messaging of "Trump taking credit for the Obama economy failed, so they went to the foghorn racism that worked for Trump in 2016.  It failed miserably and the Democrats came within a whisker of winning back the state assembly.

“This is more of a populist district than it is a conservative district,” Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist from southwestern Pennsylvania who ran a previous race in that district, told me today, referring to the leanings of voters in steel and coal country in places such as Washington, Westmoreland and Greene counties, which Trump carried in 2016 by 61-36, 64-33 and 70-28, respectively. Those are huge margins, a reminder that this district is mostly deep, deep, deep Trump country. 
Still, Mikus argued to me that the district is more “economically diverse” than is commonly understood, with a large chunk of the more educated voters coming from the suburbs of Pittsburgh in Allegheny County. But this, too, highlights something important. Republicans hope that the tax plan will also stanch losses among college-educated and suburban white voters who might stomach Trump’s excesses and vote their bottom lines instead. Yet it seems clear that Lamb will do well in those areas, perhaps mirroring places such as Virginia, where Trump’s sexist, racist and xenophobic provocations are shifting white suburban voters toward Democrats and supercharging turnout among them to boot
And if anything, Trump and Republicans are doubling down on those cultural provocations. In addition to the ads referenced above, Trump’s rally in Moon Township over the weekend featured full-blown race-baiting and authoritarian appeals, with brutal attacks on the media and on a prominent African American congresswoman as “a very low IQ individual.” This, apparently, is what is necessary to excite Trump country and get those Trump and GOP voters out — even amid this awesome Trump economy. 
To be clear, Saccone could still win. But if Lamb keeps it close, it will still show that the Trump/GOP tax cuts aren’t enough to get educated suburban white voters to put aside their distaste with Trump in the numbers Republicans need. What’s more, this race is shaping up as a referendum on whether Republicans can hold Trump’s blue-collar white base, including the disaffected union Democrats who defected in 2016, in Trump-like numbers. But Mikus suggested to me that Lamb, who has campaigned on a pro-labor message, may be showing how Democrats can begin to reverse that trend, because even in Trump country, he’s “bringing some of those voters home.”

If so, this will show that candidates matter, to be sure. But it will also show that Trump’s agenda — which is basically Orthodox Ryanism overlaid with reckless protectionism in the form of the tariffs, plus a lot of bombast — isn’t enough to prevent good Democratic candidates from bringing back some of those voters. And that could have an impact on Democratic chances of winning the House this fall, since that turns in part on whether they can put some of these more working-class districts in play.

I still remained convinced that for the Dems to put more districts like PA-18 in play, Democrats need to try to get back 2012 Obama voters that dropped out in 2016, not the ones who voted for Trump.  But keep in mind if a district that Trump won by 20 points is competitive now, then there is no truly safe district for the GOP in November.

Not a one.

And they know it.

Oh, and one last thing:  Monmouth University has Lamb up by six in their final poll in the race today.

Here's hoping that holds up for tomorrow.

It's Mueller Time, Con't

As I've said before, there's three aspects to the Mueller investigation into the Trump regime, the Russian conspiracy to collude with Trump's team in order to affect the 2016 election, the long-time money laundering through Trump's international holdings, and the obstruction of justice to cover up evidence of the first two parts of the story.

It was a very busy weekend on the Mueller front, we've got four for your today.  Since Trump and his compatriots are terrible liars, the obstruction of justice investigation is proceeding faster than the other two sections of the probe, and the theory from Bloomberg News this morning is that Mueller will sit on any charges against Trump and/or his family until the rest of the investigation is completed.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into whether President Donald Trump obstructed justice is said to be close to completion, but he may set it aside while he finishes other key parts of his probe, such as possible collusion and the hacking of Democrats, according to current and former U.S. officials.

That’s because Mueller may calculate that if he tries to bring charges in the obstruction case -- the part that may hit closest to Trump personally -- witnesses may become less cooperative in other parts of the probe, or the president may move to shut it down altogether.

The revelation is a peek into Muller’s calculations as he proceeds with his many-headed probe, while pressure builds from the president’s advisers and other Republicans to show progress or wrap it up.

The obstruction portion of the probe could likely be completed after several key outstanding interviews, including with the president and his son, Donald Trump Jr. The president’s lawyers have been negotiating with Mueller’s team over such an encounter since late last year. But even if Trump testifies in the coming weeks, Mueller may make a strategic calculation to keep his findings on obstruction secret, according to the current and former U.S. officials, who discussed the strategy on condition of anonymity.

Any clear outcome of the obstruction inquiry could be used against Mueller: Filing charges against Trump or his family could prompt the president to take action to fire him. Publicly clearing Trump of obstruction charges -- as the president’s lawyers have requested -- could be used by his allies to build pressure for the broader investigation to be shut down
.

Other key matters under investigation by Mueller’s team, with its 17 career prosecutors, include whether Trump or any of his associates helped Russia meddle in the 2016 campaign. Mueller is also expected to indict some of those responsible for hacking the Democratic National Committee before the election and publicly leaking stolen material in an effort to hurt Democrat Hillary Clinton.

The timing for whether -- and when -- to interview Trump or his family members is one of the most sensitive decisions Mueller faces at this stage of his investigation. The special counsel’s office declined to comment for this story.

This is a weird story, which heavily implies that Mueller has more than enough to start charging the President and his inner circle with obstruction of justice, but the second Mueller makes a move either way on it, the fear is that Trump will fire Mueller.

I'm assuming the story is to inform people to hold on and to expect Mueller's team to go dark again after a relative whirlwind of action over the last several weeks.  It's also a reminder that the investigation in total is far, far from over.

Connect the dots in public reporting on Trump’s financial dealings, and a business model comes to light, one based on association with crooks, money launderers — and lots of Russians.

Take Trump’s Panama tower. The project’s lead broker, Alexandre Henrique Ventura Nogueira, was a criminal; in 2009, he admitted to money laundering and was arrested for fraud and forgery in other projects. He fled the country.

All-cash deals for condos — a red flag for money laundering — were commonplace at Trump Panama. Convicted drug-money launderer Colombian David Helmut Murcia Guzmán bought 10 condos. Suspected Russian money launderers Andrey Bogdanov and Ivan Kazanikov bought a dozen others. A former financial crimes prosecutor in Panama, Mauricio Ceballos, called Trump Ocean Club Panama “a vehicle for money laundering.”

Are financial crimes the kompromat (compromising evidence) that gives Russians leverage over him?

Panama is not an isolated instance — the business model started with his casinos.

The U.S. Bank Secrecy Act requires that the gambling industry (notorious for money laundering) keep strict records to detect and prevent “cleansing” of mobsters’ ill-gotten gains. The Trump Taj Mahal casino in Atlantic City, N.J., once paid a $10 million fine for willful violations of that act. It admitted doing it on purpose! What was the company hiding then?

Associations with criminals and Russians accelerated as the Trump Organization began licensing its name on hotel-condo projects.

Trump’s partners in its SoHo project in Manhattan, as in other deals, were crooks. Felix Sater, a Russian, had pleaded guilty to money laundering and stock manipulation and a stabbing with the stem of wine glass. The FBI considered partner Tamir Sapir part of a Russian mob. Financing for that hotel came from an Icelandic bank close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Three-fourths of the sales were all-cash.

At Trump Tower Toronto, the Trump Organization first partnered with Leib Waldman, who had fled the United States after pleading guilty to bankruptcy fraud and embezzlement. Then a Russian-born Canadian, Alex Shnaider, replaced Waldman. Shnaider had made fast money in the former Soviet Union and dealt with a Russian bank connected to Putin. Another foreign bank, accused previously of acting as a conduit for Russian money laundering, financed the project. The project incurred excessive construction costs — a trademark of money laundering — and went bankrupt while 400 other similar condo towers in Toronto succeeded.

In 2012, the Trump Organization partnered with a family referred to as “the Corleones of the Caspian, after the fictional Mafia family in “The Godfather” films,” to launch a hotel-condo project in Azerbaijan. Duffel bags of cash were used to pay contractors. Was money laundering during construction its real purpose? One thing’s for sure: No one who intended a luxury hotel to succeed would ever locate it on the wrong side of the tracks, where this one stood. It never opened.

With evidence of so many financial crimes, the Russians may not need the salacious acts recounted in the Steele dossier to compromise Trump. A few major felonies might do quite nicely.

Remember, it's not just Trump, his entire family is in on the business, and business is good.

Donald Trump Jr. has a previously undisclosed business relationship with a longtime hunting buddy who helped raise millions of dollars for his father’s 2016 presidential campaign and has had special access to top government officials since the election, records obtained by The Associated Press show
The president’s eldest son and Texas hedge fund manager Gentry Beach have been involved in business deals together dating back to the mid-2000s and recently formed a company — Future Venture LLC — despite past claims by both men that they were just friends, according to previously unreported court records and other documents obtained by AP. 
Beach last year met with top National Security Council officials to push a plan that would curb U.S. sanctions in Venezuela and open up business for U.S. companies in the oil-rich nation. 
Ethics experts said their financial entanglements raised questions about whether Beach’s access to government officials and advocacy for policy changes were made possible by the president’s son’s influence — and could also benefit the Trump family’s bottom line. 
“This feeds into the same concerns that we’ve had all along: The really fuzzy line between the presidency and the Trumps’ companies,” said Noah Bookbinder, who leads Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, a public policy group. “Donald Trump Jr. sort of straddles that line all the time.” 
Last February, just as Trump Sr. was settling into office, Beach and an Iraqi-American businessman met with top officials at the National Security Council to present their plan for lightening U.S. sanctions in Venezuela in exchange for opening business opportunities for U.S. companies, according to a former U.S. official with direct knowledge of the proposal.

The Trumps are corrupt to the core.  It'll be easy to jump on the obstruction of justice and call it a day, but the real issue remains the repeated criminal violations of corruption and influence peddling.  If Mueller has to sit on an open-and-shut obstruction case to get to the slimy middle of this garbage mountain, then so be it.

And finally, let's not forget that the White House staff could be facing plenty of criminal liability for enabling the Trump regime.

If special counsel Robert S. Mueller III one day proves that someone on the 2016 Trump campaign colluded with Russia, a top White House spokesman may live to regret what he said Sunday. 
Appearing on ABC's “This Week,” deputy White House press secretary Raj Shah said President Trump would have been aware of any such collusion if it did occur. 
“There's been zero evidence, after a year of investigation, that we've seen of actual collusion between the Russian government and the Trump campaign,” Shah said. “The president, who would be aware of any types of efforts, has been pretty clear, understands and knows that there is no collusion. 
“And so, as he has said, this investigation is everything from a hoax to a witch hunt. It's not going to find any evidence of collusion.” 
Okay, but what if it does? Shah has just ruled out the idea that someone else could have colluded with Russia without Trump's knowledge. If we find out one day that someone within the campaign did collude, Shah's remarks suggest that Trump had to have known about it. There's no other way to read them.

They're crooks and they're stupid crooks.  And hey if the story gives Trump's people heartburn, well. We'll see.

StupidiNews!

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